Baird’s 2023 REIT Outlook Is Cautious

The DJIA rose 217 points while Nasdaq was up 69, the S&P 500 rose 14 points and the 10 year treasury yield was down .11 to 3.45%. Lodging stocks were higher with the only big mover of note once again being AHT, up another 6%.

Baird gave their 2023 Hotel REIT outlook saying they are taking a more balanced approach in early 2023 as macroeconomic risks and growing expense pressures keep them selective. Baird said they see better buying opportunities if/when estimates reset further and more clarity emerges on the fundamental front. They said they don’t need to be too negative as a lot of investors are already there from a sentiment perspective and estimates have been trending lower. Xenia Hotels remains their Top Pick and Apple Hospitality remains a high-conviction Outperform-rated name. Baird downgraded Summit Hotels to Neutral from Outperform. Their price target was cut to $8 from $10. Baird said the downgrade and lower price target reflects reduced earnings estimates, less attractive valuation versus peers, recent acquisitions that have lagged underwriting expectations, and moving pieces/modeling uncertainty related to transactions and joint venture adjustments.

STR announced U.S. lodging data for the week ended January 7. Year over year RevPAR was up 21.8% on easy comps due to holiday/school timing and the Omicron outbreak last year. Versus the same week in 2019, RevPAR was up only 0.3%.

MCR has acquired the Courtyard Dallas Grand Prairie, a four-story, select-service hotel with 120 rooms located in Grand Prairie, Texas. The hotel was purchased with acquisition financing from American Momentum Bank in place, at a rate of SOFR plus 260 basis points and a 65% loan to value. The hotel features 2,000 square feet of meeting space, The Bistro, grab-and-go market, outdoor pool, putting green, patio bar,