U.S. RevPAR Projected to Be 14% Above 2019 Levels Next Year
Skift Take
- CBRE forecasts 3.0% RevPAR growth in 2024, driven by improved international travel and economic factors.
- Lodging stocks were mixed today with SOND biggest mover, down -12%, SHCO and AHT both down -6%, VCSA fell -5%.
- Various hotel projects announced, including new developments in Las Vegas and North Carolina, renovations in Nashville and Pocono Mountains, and upcoming openings in Florida and Virginia.
The DJIA fell 46 points, Nasdaq was up 10, the S&P 500 was up 5, while the 10-year treasury yield was down .09 to 4.45%. Lodging stocks were mixed. SOND was the biggest mover and biggest loser, down another -12%. SHCO and AHT were both down -6% while VCSA fell -5% on the day.
CBRE is forecasting RevPAR growth to recover in 2024 as inbound international travel further improves and sector-specific headwinds moderate. CBRE forecasts 3.0% RevPAR growth in 2024, driven by a 40 bps occupancy improvement and a 2.3% ADR increase. RevPAR in 2024 is expected to be 14% greater than 2019 levels. CBRE’s baseline forecast anticipates 0.8% average GDP growth and 2.9% average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlations between GDP and RevPAR growth, strong or weaker economic growth will directly impact lodging industry performance. The best performing location type in Q3 2023 was urban, where occupancy improved 110 bps to
