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North America

U.S. RevPAR Projected to Be 14% Above 2019 Levels Next Year 

Alan Woinski and Kim Woinski
November 16th, 2023 at 4:34 PM EST

Skift Take

  • CBRE forecasts 3.0% RevPAR growth in 2024, driven by improved international travel and economic factors.
  • Lodging stocks were mixed today with SOND biggest mover, down -12%, SHCO and AHT both down -6%, VCSA fell -5%.
  • Various hotel projects announced, including new developments in Las Vegas and North Carolina, renovations in Nashville and Pocono Mountains, and upcoming openings in Florida and Virginia.

The DJIA fell 46 points, Nasdaq was up 10, the S&P 500 was up 5, while the 10-year treasury yield was down .09 to 4.45%. Lodging stocks were mixed. SOND was the biggest mover and biggest loser, down another -12%. SHCO and AHT were both down -6% while VCSA fell -5% on the day.

CBRE is forecasting RevPAR growth to recover in 2024 as inbound international travel further improves and sector-specific headwinds moderate. CBRE forecasts 3.0% RevPAR growth in 2024, driven by a 40 bps occupancy improvement and a 2.3% ADR increase. RevPAR in 2024 is expected to be 14% greater than 2019 levels. CBRE’s baseline forecast anticipates 0.8% average GDP growth and 2.9% average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlations between GDP and RevPAR growth, strong or weaker economic growth will directly impact lodging industry performance. The best performing location type in Q3 2023 was urban, where occupancy improved 110 bps to 70.3%. Airport occupancy was stable at 71.9%, while occupancy fell at suburban, town, resort and interstate properties. Occupancies at all location types were below 2019 levels in Q2 2023. 

According to a survey commissioned by the American Hotel & Lodging Association and conducted by Morning Consult, 68% of Americans whose jobs involve travel said they were likely to travel overnight for business during the last three months of 2023, up from 59% in 2022. Hotels are the top lodging choice for 81% of business travelers surveyed. The survey found that 32% of Americans are likely to travel overnight for Thanksgiving, up from 28% a year earlier, while 34% are likely to travel overnight for Christmas, up from 31% last year. Meanwhile, 37% of Americans said they were likely to travel overnight for leisure during the last three months of 2023, down slightly from 39% in 2022. Other key findings in the survey of 4,006 adults include: 55% of Americans planning to travel overnight for leisure during the last three months of 2023 plan to stay in a hotel. 45% of Americans said they are more likely to stay in a hotel this holiday season than they were last year. 44% of Americans are likely to take more leisure/vacation trips this holiday season that they did last year. 59% of those planning to travel overnight for Thanksgiving plan to stay with family or friends, while 30% plan to stay at a hotel. 62% of those planning to travel overnight for Christmas plan to stay with family or friends, while 26% plan to stay at a hotel. 

Jackson-Shaw unveiled new renderings for a planned hotel project in downtown Las Vegas at Symphony Park. The five-story, dual-branded project by AC Hotel by Marriott Symphony Park and Element by Westin Symphony Park in Las Vegas will feature a total of 441 rooms.

Playa Hotels & Resorts announced the completion of extensive renovations at the newly renamed Wyndham Alltra Vallarta in Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico. The comprehensive refurbishment includes the upgrade of all 159 guestrooms and suites, a new and improved Alltra VIP Club, five revamped dining venues, and a meticulous renovation of the hotel’s ballroom.

Choice Hotels International, Inc. announced the opening of the Cambria Hotel Waco University Riverfront, the ninth Cambria Hotel to open in Texas. The four-story, 130-room property offers onsite dining; a fitness center; multi-purpose indoor and outdoor spaces including an outdoor patio, hot tub, and 2 pools in the courtyard area; and 7,000 square feet of meeting and event spaces, including separate banquet, board and wine rooms. The Cambria Hotel Waco University Riverfront was developed by KB Hotels, LLC. 

Lendlease and IHG Army Hotels broke ground on a Candlewood Suites hotel at Fort Liberty in North Carolina. Expected to open in early 2026, the 207-room hotel is the seventeenth Candlewood Suites property Lendlease and IHG have partnered on. The hotel will offer a business center, fitness center, laundry facilities, Candlewood Cupboard market, outdoor seating and barbeque area and a separate lounge for Distinguished Visitors.

Dreamscape Companies completed the acquisition of the Holston House Nashville from HRI Properties. Holston House Nashville makes Dreamscape the largest hotel owner in Downtown Nashville, with three hotels totaling over 900 rooms. Aimbridge Hospitality will oversee and manage operations at the hotel. The Holston House Nashville is outfitted with 191 rooms, 6,500 square feet of meeting space and a rooftop bar and pool, a street-level restaurant, a lobby bar, and onsite parking. In addition to re-imaging the hotel’s dining concept, Dreamscape plans to integrate additional retail concepts within the property’s expansive lobby. The transaction was brokered by Newmark’s Lodging Capital Markets Group who represented the seller and HRI Properties. The financing was sourced by Newmark’s New York based Debt & Structured Finance group.

The Great Wolf Lodge in the Pocono Mountains announced the addition of brand-new Woodland Villas, each with three bedrooms and can be conjoined to create larger rooms. The outdoor waterpark was expanded to have 20 slides and there is a new pool as well as a hot tub and cozy fire pits. The renovation also includes a new toddler area, two new elevated dining locations and a redesigned Grand Lobby includes self check-in kiosks.

In Bradenton Beach, Florida, the second Planning and Zoning Board public hearing on a proposed 106-room hotel project unanimously recommended that Bradenton Beach commissioners approve the project with conditions. The property, owned by Shawn Kaleta and Jacob Spooner, would also feature a restaurant, 2,485 square feet of retail space and 99 parking spaces. 

The Margaritaville Beach Resort announced its grand opening on Fort Myers Beach, Florida will be on December 21. 

Oahu’s 1,300-acre Turtle Bay Resort has been renovating quietly around the property, finishing up the project this year with work on the Nalu Spa and fitness center. Every aspect of the resort’s interior has been reinvented, while the grounds and land around the property received a few upgrades. Turtle Bay Resort boasts 410 redesigned guestrooms including two new presidential Ali’i Suites. The revitalized Spa features outdoor treatment rooms, new cabanas, the Nalu Seaside Hale private hut, and the terraced pool deck now features an adult’s only pool, a kids’ pool with two waterslides and a redesigned family-friendly pool with new cabanas. The light-filled lobby has had walls replaced with windows and the renovation also introduced new restaurants. 

Richmond, Virginia’s Fan neighborhood will be getting its first boutique hotel next year. Shenandoah Mansions, a 73-key is set to open in the fall of 2024. The six-story hotel is coming from hotelier Ash, and will feature a retail space, bar and the third location of Ash-Bar, an all-day dining concept and European café. The hotelier purchased the building for $3.5 million in 2021.

Silver Cloud Inns & Hotels is planning to build a 10-story, 150-room hotel in Bellevue, Washington. The $60 million project would begin construction in early 2025. Plans call for a rooftop pool and wellness center. 

Susurros del Corazon, Auberge Resorts Collection unveiled its new spa and wellness concept, ONDA, an Auberge Spa. The largest and most innovative resort spa on the Bahia de Banderas has 11 treatment rooms and luxurious facilities including a vitality pool, citrus saunas, aloe steam rooms, clay showers and two wellness-focused eateries. The resort features 59 studios, casitas and suites and 30 two-to-five bedroom villas and oceanfront residences, several dining venues, three infinity-edge pools and a kid’s club. 

Alan Woinski and Kim Woinski
November 16th, 2023 at 4:34 PM EST

Companies: AC Hotels by Marriott, Ashford Hospitality Trust, Auberge Resorts Collection, Cambria Hotels, Candlewood Suites, Choice Hotels International, Element, Great Wolf Resorts, HRI Hospitality, IHG Hotels & Resorts, Margaritaville Hotels & Resorts, Marriott International, Soho House and Co Inc., Sonder Holdings Inc., Vacasa, Wyndham Alltra, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts

Locations: Florida, Las Vegas, Mexico, Nashville, North Carolina, Oahu, Pennsylvania, Puerto Vallarta, Seattle, Texas, Virginia

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