Wells Fargo's Hotel Picks and Growth Predictions

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It was another strange market today with the DJIA down 80 points, Nasdaq up 44, the S&P 500 down 3 points, and the 10-year treasury yield plunging .12 to 4.17%. Lodging stocks were lower. BHR traded down -6%, VAC, VCSA, and SLNA were each down -5% with SLNA at another all-time low.

Wells Fargo initiated coverage on Hyatt, Hilton, and Marriott. WF said that, heading into 2024, they favor operators that cater to group and higher-end business/leisure travel, have strong unit growth outlooks, and carry reasonable valuations. WF expects macro uncertainty to ease in 2024 and international rates to stabilize, which should help new construction/unit growth and asset sales. They are forecasting RevPAR growth of 3%-4% in 2024 and prefer operators with exposure to group, high-end leisure, and the Asia Pacific market. They initiated on Hyatt with an Overweight rating and $138 price target while starting Hilton and Marriott with Equal Weight ratings and price targets of $168 and $220 respectively.

CBRE U.S. Hotels State of the Union November 2023 Edition showed how the gap between inbound and outbound travel persists. Key takeaways from the report include: U.S. loan origination was down again in October versus 2022. Hotel CMBS interest rates reached 9.0% in October, up from 6.8% a year ago. Revolving consumer credit leverage is below pre-pandemic levels on both a real and nominal basis, at 6.4% and 6.3% compared with 6.8% and 6.6%, respectively.

Although consumers have discretionary income to travel - wages are up 3.2%, and airfares are down 13.2% - RevPAR continues to fall, down 2.1% YoY. RevPAR declines were driven by a 3.2% decrease in occupancy, partially offset by a 1.1% increase in ADR. TSA throughput is up 9.6% November month-to-date. With ADR and RevPAR already recovered to 2019 levels, occupancy is not expected to recover until 2028. CBRE expects urban RevPAR will grow faster than other location types over the next several years. GOP profit dollars increased 3.3% in September. Hotel demand growth declined 2.4% in October while short-term rental demand rose 15.0%, suggesting that short-term rentals are taking share from hotels.

Ashford Hospitality Trust said they completed the transfer of ownership of the KEYS F loan pool to the mortgage lender. The hotels in the loan pool transferred to the mortgage lender include Embassy Suites Flagstaff in Flagstaff, AZ; Embassy Suites Walnut Creek in Walnut Creek, CA; Marriott Bridgewater in Bridgewater, NJ; Marriott Research Triangle Park in Durham, NC; and The W Atlanta Downtown in Atlanta, GA. AHT continues to work with the lender for the KEYS A and KEYS B loan pools on consensual transfer of ownership of those hotels to the lender.

Texas Western Hospitality announced the opening of their newest property, Home2 Suites by Hilton in Abilene, Texas. Home2 Suites by Hilton Abilene Southwest offers 128 suites, inviting communal spaces, and trademark Home2 Suites amenities including Spin2 Cycle, Home2 MKT, and the Inspired Table. Additional amenities include an outdoor swimming pool, 1,500 square feet of meeting space, electric vehicle charging stations, and an outdoor patio with a fire pit.

Accor announced Hotel Andra Seattle has joined the Group’s global portfolio as the newest addition to the MGallery Hotel Collection following a $12 million property-wide renovation. Located in Seattle’s Central Business District, the ten-story hotel offers 123 guestrooms and suites, two restaurants, and is the renowned home of Hot Stove Society offering a variety of recreational cooking classes and events. The MGallery Hotel Collection is undergoing exceptional growth with more than 55 hotels in varying stages of development around the globe. Accor will also open the first MGallery Hotel & Residences in Mexicowith the debut of Mayaliah Tulum Hotel & Residences - MGallery, slated for 2024.

Marriott International, Inc. has begun taking reservations for its first Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy property. Casa Costera, Isla Verde, Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy in San Juan, Puerto Rico is expected to open in the coming weeks with 107 units and a rooftop pool. The typical Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy units offer private bedrooms, a separate living room, full kitchen, and washer/dryer. A 24-hour gym allows guests to maintain their wellness routines. Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy does not provide traditional hotel services such as food and beverage, meeting spaces, or daily housekeeping.

Lexington Hospitality is looking to bring a Courtyard by Marriott to a vacant lot in Lexington, South Carolina. The company is still working on the hotel’s design and has not finalized their proposal to the town.

Red Roof announced the grand opening of four distinct properties including: The 77-room Spot X - Tampa Bay, The Red Collection in Wesley Chapel, Florida. Owned by QDI USA Developments LLC, the hotel is set to undergo a nearly $1.2 million renovation in December. The 36-room Red Roof Inn & Suites Richland in Richland, Mississippi. The 56-room Red Roof Inn Washington, North Carolina recently underwent a $375,000 renovation, enhancing guest experience and comfort. The Red Roof PLUS+ Belleville, Michigan, presents 62 guestrooms following a comprehensive $1 million renovation by BIN Hotel Group LLC.

South Street Partners, in partnership with WoodHouse, announced the recapitalization of the 262-key Elevation Hotel & Spa, the only hotel located at the base of Mt. Crested Butte in Colorado. South Street and WoodHouse will work together toward a redevelopment plan that enhances the hotel and overall experience for both guests and locals. The partnership will launch a comprehensive renovation of Elevation with a plan to convert a portion of the hotel rooms to residences. The redevelopment plan is anticipated to be completed before the 2026 ski season. Managed by Highgate, Elevationincludes 262 rooms, an indoor pool, fitness center, spa, 20,000 square feet of meeting space, and three distinct food and beverage outlets.

Bellefield at Historic Hyde Park’s first hotel, Inn at Bellefield, is now accepting reservations starting January 14, 2024. The 137-suite Inn at Bellefield Residence Inn by Marriott International is a $55 million project developed by T-Rex Capital Group, LLC, in partnership with Shaner Hotel Group, LP. The property will feature 3,180 square feet of meeting space, an upscale fitness center, an onsite restaurant, and a market. Bellefield at Historic Hyde Park is a $1 billion hospitality, agritourism, and residential destination located in Hyde Park, New York. When completed, Bellefield at Historic Hyde Park will offer 430,000 square feet of retail and commercial space, 400,000 square feet of tourism and hospitality space including a second luxury hotel, and approximately 801 residential units.

Rentyl Resorts and Largo Resort entered into a full management agreement, with the goal of expanding its luxurious offerings to travelers in Key Largo, Florida. The new agreement involves Rentyl overseeing maintenance, housekeeping, security, resort services, and other day-to-day operations. Largo Resort is a unique and healing sanctuary featuring an infinity pool and function spaces.

The SureStay Plus by Best Western Brooks has opened in Brooks, Alberta. The hotel features 61 guestrooms, a business center, fitness center, and guest laundry.

Margaritaville plans to build a resort in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. The resort will feature three major buildings including a main hotel, an accommodations tower for parking and check-in, and an amenity center with a pool deck and bar/restaurant. The hotel will include ballrooms, conference rooms, and a Margaritaville gift shop. On the second floor, there will be space for additional development which could include restaurants, cafes, bakeries, bars, retail shops, and other stores. Some details about the plan have not been revealed, such as the cost, the number of beds, and the timeline of construction.

Berkadia announced the sale of the Sedona Real Inn & Suites, an 89-key hotel located in Sedona, Arizona. Berkadia Hotels & Hospitality led the transaction on behalf of the seller, MIG Real Estate. The Sedona Real Inn & Suites sold to Crystal Creek Capital.

International tourism is on track to recover almost 90% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year. According to the latest data from the World Tourism Organization, an estimated 975 million tourists traveled internationally between January and September 2023, an increase of 38% on the same months of 2022. The newest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer also shows: World destinations welcomed 22% more international tourists in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year. International tourist arrivals hit 91% of pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter, reaching 92% in July, the best month since the start of the pandemic. Overall, tourism recovered 87% of pre-pandemic levels in January-September 2023, putting the sector on course to recover almost 90% by the end of the year. International tourism receipts could reach USD 1.4 trillion in 2023, about 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019.

The Middle East continues to lead the recovery by regions in relative terms, with arrivals 20% above pre-pandemic levels in the nine months through September 2023. Europe welcomed 550 million international tourists over the period, 56% of the global total. That represents 94% of pre-pandemic levels. Africa recover 92% of pre-pandemic visitors and arrivals in the Americas reached 88% of 2019 numbers this period. Asia and the Pacific reached 62% of pre-pandemic levels. Strong demand for outbound travel was reported by several large source markets this period, with many exceeding 2019 levels. Germany and the United States spent 13% and 11% more respectively on outbound travel than in the same nine months of 2019, while Italy spent 16% more through August.