JP Morgan States Its Q1 Hotel Performance Expectations
Skift Take
JP Morgan forecasts mixed 1Q24 results for the lodging sector, with slow RevPAR growth, strong net rooms growth, and moderating pipeline expansion, recommending selectiveness due to varied performance across companies.
Today, the DJIA fell 248 points, experiencing a 600 point swing from its morning highs. The Nasdaq was down 290 points, while the S&P 500 fell 62 points. The 10-year treasury yield jumped by 0.13% to 4.63%. Lodging stocks experienced a decline, with new 52-week lows hit by SOHO and VCSA. SOND was down 10%, and AHT fell by 8%.
JP Morgan said their expectations for the 1Q24 earnings season indicate slowing US RevPAR growth for the lodging group, stronger net rooms growth for the C-Corps, and moderating pipeline growth. They mentioned remaining selective in the lodging sector due to slowing 1Q24 RevPAR growth but suggested that most companies could slightly exceed guidance and Street estimates. They are broadly in line with consensus on 1Q24 EBITDA for C-Corps and timeshare companies but modestly below for lodging REITs. JPM said they are nearly a full point lower on C-Corp RevPAR for year over year growth. They see 1Q24 global supply up 3.7% year over
