CBRE Expects 1% a Year Hotel Supply Growth Through 2027
Skift Take
In the shorter term, CBRE expects a 2% RevPAR growth in 2024, driven by international tourism and limited supply, despite a weaker first quarter and a reduced forecast from 3%.
The DJIA ended Friday up 134 points, while Nasdaq was down 12. The S&P 500 rose 6 points, and the 10-year treasury yield was up .04 to 4.42%. Lodging stocks were modestly lower. VCSA was the only mover of note, down another 11% to another new low.
Deutsche Bank updated their Lodging REIT models, leading to a handful of price target revisions. DB said the key to them coming out of 1Q earnings season is that investors are skeptical of guidance from several hotel REIT management teams that implies meaningfully better RevPAR growth in 2H vs. 1H. While this plays out, DB believes an uptick in transactional activity could be a meaningful catalyst. DB lowered price targets on RLJ to $14 from $15, BHR to $8 from $9 and AHT to $4 from $6.
CBRE expects RevPAR growth to improve in the second half of 2024, following a weaker-than-expected first quarter. The company's latest forecast projects a 2.0% increase in Rev
