Amex GBT Releases Forecast for Global Hotel Industry

The DJIA fell 410 points today while Nasdaq was down 296, the S&P 500 fell 54 points and the 10-year treasury yield continued its march higher, up another .04 to 4.24%. Percentage-wise, the only two big movers were SOHO, up 9%, and SHCO, down -6%. The earnings reports had some big swings in other names.

Our best way to describe the different reactions to Hilton and Travel + Leisure’s 3Q results today would be to say it wasn’t as much about the earnings results as it was about the recent stock price action and the expectations. HLT stock had been on fire, so although they reported better-than-expected 3Q24 EBITDA and EPS, RevPAR was weaker than expected, their 4Q guidance was lower than expectations, and RevPAR for the full year was guided lower. TNL, on the other hand, had extremely low expectations going into the print, so a good report resulted in a sigh of relief from investors. Truist said it best, calling the TNL report decent, though hardly perfect. The relief was that they did not change 4Q guidance even with the recent hurricanes. VOI sales continue to be weak. Getting back to HLT, the stock actually did better in regular trading than the knee-jerk reaction in pre-market. HLT’s pipeline was OK, and they returned $764 million in capital with $37 million in dividends and 3.3 million shares repurchased in the quarter for $727 million. TNL bought back $70 million worth of stock in the quarter, 2% of the shares outstanding. TNL rose $1.83 on the day but did not bring VAC up with it. HLT was down $4.63 a share, but MARwas down nearly $8 a share, H was down more than $6, while CHH was down more than $4 a share, and WH was down nearly $2.

STR reported hotel RevPAR for the week ending October 19. U.S. Hotel RevPARwas up 4.2% year over year with rates up 2.5%. Group RevPAR was down again, this time down -0.6%.

American Express Global Business Travel has released its forecast for the global hotel and travel industry until 2025. One of Amex GBT’s key predictions is that sustainability will significantly influence consumer travel choices. This will likely push hotels towards more sustainable practices in their operations. Another major shift predicted by Amex GBT is the rise of personalized experiences in hospitality, including anything from customized room settings based on individual tastes to curated local experiences designed around guests’ interests. According to Amex GBT’s forecast, technology is also expected to play a significant role in shaping the future of the hotel industry. From seamless online booking systems and digital check-ins to AI-powered concierge services, technology is set to redefine how hotels operate and interact with their guests. Furthermore, Amex GBT predicts that business travel will continue evolving into blended leisure and travel trips as employees seek work-life balance even while traveling for work. Regarding market dynamics, Amex GBT expects the hotel industry to see a shift towards more transparency and flexibility in pricing. The forecast suggests that hotels must adapt their strategies to meet these changing trends.

Canada’s hotel industry recorded its first month-over-month occupancy decline since January 2024, according to CoStar’s September 2024 data. September 2024 (percentage change from 2023): Occupancy: 74.0% (-1.8%) ADR: CAD227.99 (+2.6%) and RevPAR: CAD 168.69 (+0.8%). Among the provinces and territories, Nova Scotia recorded the highest occupancy level (82.4%), which was 1.7% above 2023. Among the major markets, Vancouver saw the highest occupancy (84.9%), down 1.9% over September 2023. The lowest occupancy among provinces was reported in Saskatchewan (62.4%), down 2.0% against 2023. At the market level, the lowest occupancy was reported in Edmonton (-8.7% to 58.1%).

Marriott officially announced the opening of The St. Regis Longboat Key Resort, a beachfront sanctuary developed by Unicorp National Developments. Located on Sarasota’s coveted barrier island of Longboat Key, the resort spans 18 acres, offering exclusive access to 800 feet of private beach. The St. Regis Longboat Key Resort offers 168 rooms and 26 suites, an array of swimming pools, seven distinct dining venues, St. Regis Spa, and 34,000 square feet of event space, including 18,000 square feet of beachfront access.

Bennett Hospitality is breaking ground on a new five-story hotel at Patriots Point located in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. The Residence Inn will feature a fitness center, pool with an adjacent patio and deck, meeting rooms, and dining and bar areas. Residence Inn Patriots Point is one of the hotels Bennett Hospitalityincluded in its Patriots Annex plans. Once complete, the $500 million development project will boast a seaside village with restaurants, retail, entertainment, office buildings, parks, and a grand lawn/town square.

Hotel Alpenrock Breckenridge, Curio Collection by Hilton is set to debut this winter in Breckenridge, Colorado. The 205-room hotel will include two distinct dining experiences, and nearly 10,000 square feet of space for meetings, weddings and social events.

Elite Hospitality Group has proposed a four-story, 131-room hotel as part of the Grand Landing development in Grand Haven, Michigan. The hotel will be a dual-branded Hampton Inn and Home2 Suites, and the two brands will have a shared lobby space and amenities. The hotel will house 59 Hampton Inn rooms and 72 Home2 Suites rooms. Amenities include patio space with fire pits, bike racks, a fitness center, and a pool. Elite Hospitality expects to break ground in late 2025.

Lake Clinch Resort, an exclusive adults-only RV and mobile home park on the shores of Lake Clinch in Frostproof, Florida, announced its grand reopening after extensive renovations. Lake Clinch RV Resort has been transformed into a vibrant community and features a renovated clubhouse, a private beach, and a boat dock. The resort offers spacious RV sites and mobile homes equipped with private outdoor patio spaces, laundry facilities, other essential services, and a variety of recreational activities.

In Rockford, Michigan, crews moved to the next phase of the Hotel Rose project. With the final steel beam in place, framing and vertical construction can now begin. The new hotel will feature 54 hotel rooms and 5 businesses below. Leases are signed, including for a dinner restaurant and a breakfast/lunch spot. According to WDG Construction, everything is on track for the hotel to open by late summer or early fall 2025.

Faena announced the upcoming opening of Faena New York, set for late Spring 2025 in New York City. Faena New York will offer 120 guestrooms and suites, Tierra Santa Healing House, dynamic food and beverage venues, and vibrant nightlife programming.

Wilks Development received approval on three sets of site plans from the Planning & Zoning Commission of Frisco, Texas. Named Firefly Park, the site will be a sprawling urban redevelopment for residential, commercial, and recreational space that’s expected to cost between $2 billion and $4 billion. The plan seeks to construct 230 luxury townhomes, 1,200 hotel rooms, and nearly 2,000 mid- and high-rise residential units alongside 400,000 square feet of commercial and retail space, 3 million square feet of office space, and a 45-acre park. The property is jointly owned by Wilks and the Frisco Economic Development Corporation. Phase one started with a groundbreaking in April 2024. The initial phase will include the construction of the luxury 191-room Dream Hotel, with an estimated 2027 completion date for the first-stage works. Phase two will immediately follow the completion of phase one.

Funds managed by Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual received preliminary approval on Friday from the country’s antitrust regulator to buy the hotel operations of AccorInvest in Brazil for 1.7 billion reais. Funds from BTG are acquiring all 18 hotels AccorInvest owns in Brazil, totaling 2,600 rooms. The hotels will continue to be operated by Accor.

Mandarin Oriental, Canouan, the secluded all-suite, all-villa luxury resort in St. Vincent and The Grenadines, announced its reopening on November 15, 2024, following a temporary closure due to the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl. The secluded island sanctuary features 26 suites and eight villas and is home to a collection of restaurants.

Personnel Moves

MMI Hospitality Group announced the expansion of its accounting and finance leadership team with the appointment of Garrett Ponder and the promotion of Jessica Humphreys. Ponder joins MMI Hospitality Group in a newly established role as Corporate Director of Finance, created to enhance the corporate support infrastructure and its overall capacity. Further, an enhanced role within the accounting and financial team is the newly appointed Corporate Director of Accounting, Humphreys, who has dedicated twenty-five years to MMI Hospitality Group, evolving from a bank reconciliation specialist to a leadership role.

Europe Highlights

Ennismore, investor Chagall B.V. and White House Development V.V. announced the signing of Mama Shelter Amsterdam. Mama Shelter Amsterdam is set to open its doors in Q1 2027 as the brand’s first outpost in the Netherlands. The property will offer 150 guestrooms, four F&B spaces, and 80 square meters of unique meeting and event spaces.