U.S. RevPAR Trends Weaker Than Expected
Photo Credit: Photo illustration of Signia by Hilton Indianapolis Pool Deck, which will open in coming months. Hilton / Ratio Design
Skift Take
Baird and Barclays said they expect a downbeat 3Q earnings season with disappointing RevPAR. Plus, deal and development news.
The DJIA rose 239 points on Friday, while Nasdaq was down 63, the S&P 500 was flat and the 10-year treasury yield was up .03 to 4.12%. Lodging stocks were mixed. SOND rose 5%.
Barclays adjusted their Lodging C-Corp models, saying they expect a downbeat 3Q earnings season with disappointing RevPAR through the end of the summer and the month of September. Barclays said the softness has been modest and they still expect natural mix shifts into 4Q to sequentially improve results, but not quite to the level implied by guidance. They feel there is more pressure on select-service and lower-end chain scale exposures, listing in order WH, CHH, HLT, MAR and H. Barclays lowered 2026 US RevPAR estimates to 1.5% from 2% with a Global RevPAR down to 1.7% on average across upper chain scale players. While a 4Q RevPAR miss is likely baked into lodging stocks, they don't think erosion to 2026 RevPAR is necessarily. They expect&
