Kim Woinski

Wells Fargo predicts a stabilization in interest rates in 2024, benefiting hotel sector growth, with a focus on high-end leisure and Asia Pacific markets. Oppenheimer raised the target price for Host Hotels, and Driftwood Capital secured a significant refinancing loan for Hilton Cocoa Beach Oceanfront Hotel. There were key personnel changes in various hotel groups, such as Concord Hospitality and Great Wolf Resorts, indicating a focus on business development and wellness.

STR reported US lodging data for the week ended December 30. RevPAR was down -9.7% led by a -7.1% decline in occupancy. Speculators are questioning whether everyone is thinking the Fed is going to cut interest rates more than they really will. Real estate developers  Fort Partners and Merrimac Ventures  are building a  Four Seasons  hotel and condo resort in  Telluride, Colorado .

The  DJIA  fell 285 points,  Nasdaq  was down 174, the  S&P 500  fell 38 points, and the 10-year treasury yield was down nearly .10 to 3.91%. Let’s hope the first two trading days do not represent the rest of the year. STR’s  global “bubble chart” update through December 16, 2023 showed 75% of markets with growth in RevPAR compared to 2019. Could there be a hotel building moratorium in one of the most popular areas of Southern Florida?

Jefferies upgraded Park Hotels to Buy from Hold, reflecting positive changes like the removal of their San Francisco assets. Meanwhile, they downgraded Choice Hotels to Underperform from Hold due to concerns over its acquisition strategy, specifically regarding Wyndham Hotels. Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. announced the acquisition of the Springhill Suites by Marriott Las Vegas Convention Center for approximately $75 million. Bradford Allen Hospitality acquired two hotel properties in Riverhead, New York, planning significant renovations for both. PEG Companies opened The Moxy in the historic Luhrs Building in downtown Phoenix, Arizona. Hawkeye Hotels commenced construction of a Fairfield Inn & Suites in downtown Spartanburg, South Carolina, targeting a spring 2025 opening.

Citigroup downgraded Sonder Holdings from Buy to Neutral, with a new price target set at $4.Choice Hotels criticized Wyndham Hotels & Resorts for misrepresenting the lodging industry's competitive landscape. This criticism came after Wyndham's recommendation for shareholders to reject CHH's exchange offer and their discontinuation of discussions regarding a potential transaction with CHH. Hyatt announced plans to open over 35 luxury hotels and resorts globally through 2025, including new Park Hyatt locations in the UK, Mexico, and Malaysia, and expanding the Thompson Hotel brand in Europe.

Apple Hospitality REIT declared a regular monthly cash dividend and a special distribution. Bluegreen Vacation Holdings' acquisition by Hilton Grand Vacations moved forward with the expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act. Several new hotel openings and acquisitions were announced, including AC Hotels by Marriott in Naples, Moxy by Marriott in Houston, IHG's first Garner hotel, and Choice Hotels International's 100th Suburban Studios hotel.

Wyndham’s Board rejects Choice Hotels' unsolicited offer to acquire WH, backed by the Asian American Hotels Owners Association's opposition. Hilton to open its first Tapestry Collection hotel in Los Cabos in 2024, alongside another project in La Paz. Preferred Hotel Group aims to expand its Beyond Green brand in Mexico, targeting 75 sustainable hotels globally.

JP Morgan upgraded Choice Hotels to Neutral and shifted Host Hotels, Park Hotels, Ryman Hospitality, and Sunstone Hotels to Neutral, citing less downside in lodging REITs. CoStar forecasts U.S. hotel demand growth of 1.8% in 2024, with occupancy increasing by 1% and room rate growth aligning with inflation, leading to RevPAR growth of 4.8% this year and 4% in 2024. Barclays shifted to Equal Weight on Marriott Vacations, expressing uncertainty in company-specific execution and favoring Hilton Grand Vacations in the timeshare sector.

STR reported a 3.3% increase in U.S. Hotel RevPAR, led by a 4.5% rise in ADR and a 5.1% increase in Group RevPAR. Deutsche Bank provided a cautious 2024 outlook for the hotel industry, highlighting a balanced risk-reward scenario with potential bull and bear cases. Keybanc reduced their price target on Xenia Hotels & Resorts, while Truist offered a differing view on Airbnb compared to Barclays.

Choice Hotels International purchased more shares in Wyndham Hotels & Resorts in its unsolicited exchange offer to acquire the company. The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 9.3% in November, with the Hotel REIT sub-index up 7.6% year-to-date and the Hotel Brand sub-index up 30.6% year-over-year. BCD Travel forecasts a global decrease in airfares and a 6.8% increase in hotel rates in 2024.