Kim Woinski

Stock market performance: DJIA up 66 points, Nasdaq up 97, S&P 500 up 19 points, and 10-year treasury yield down to 4.60%. Lodging industry updates: US hotel RevPAR increased 5.2%, Group RevPAR was up 29.5%. Stifel lowered target price on Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, while Exane BNP Paribas downgraded IHG Hotels & Resorts. International travel data: International visitors spent $19.0 billion on US travel in August 2023, with a trade surplus of $1.8 billion. Travel and tourism accounted for 7.4% of US exports of goods and services in August 2023.

CBRE U.S. Hotels State of the Union (October 2023) shows August RevPAR declined by -0.7%, with a -1.7% occupancy drop. Total revenue growth outpaced RevPAR growth in July by 2.5%. U.S. loan origination decreased, and hotel job openings continue to decline. Hotel rates are expected to rise globally in 2024, with potential increases of up to 17.5% in some cities, according to American Express Global Business Travel's Hotel Monitor 2024. The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index was down -2% in September. Year-to-date, the Hotel Brand sub-index increased by 23%, while the Hotel REIT sub-index decreased by -1.5%.

Stock market indices showed gains on Friday, with DJIA up by 288 points, Nasdaq up by 212 points, and S&P 500 up by 50 points, while the 10-year treasury yield increased to 4.78%. San Francisco saw a significant increase in weekday occupancy, and STR reported a 66.3% occupancy rate for US hotels in September 2023. Several new hotels and renovations were announced, including Aloft Hotel near Fort Lauderdale, Residence Inn in Vail, and the Union Station Nashville Yards.

Jefferies downgraded Marriott Vacations to "Hold" from "Buy" and reduced their target price, expressing concerns over the macroeconomic outlook, particularly in consumer credit and interest rates. The 2023 survey from the Hospitality Asset Managers Association indicates optimism about RevPAR's return to 2019 levels, while various hotels announce new completions, renovations, and sales across the U.S. Key personnel appointments are announced in major hotel groups, and international brands like Wyndham, Accor, and Hyatt unveil expansion plans and new properties in locations such as Barbados, France, and Spain.

U.S. hotel industry saw positive growth in RevPAR and rates for the week ending September 30, with Group RevPAR showing significant improvement. Rosewood Hotels & Resorts is expanding its branded residence portfolio especially in Europe. Various hotel projects and developments are underway in different locations, including downtown Springfield, Norfolk, San Antonio, Beaufort, and Las Vegas, with a range of amenities and timelines.

Wedbush initiated coverage on lodging REITs, with Ryman Hospitality and Host Hotels receiving Outperform ratings and price targets of $94 and $19, respectively. Park Hotels and Pebblebrook Hotel Trust were initiated with Neutral ratings and price targets of $13 and $14, respectively. Keybanc downgraded Airbnb's rating to Sector Weight from Overweight. A report by Morning Consult indicates that the "revenge travel" trend may be declining, with travel intentions increasing in some countries but declining in others, particularly in Europe. China is experiencing a significant surge in travel, driven by pent-up demand.

Canopy by Hilton in Scottsdale, Arizona sold for roughly $102 million, and Home2 Suites by Hilton in Colonie, New York was acquired for $12.75 million. The Floridian Palace Hotel in Tampa is undergoing a $30 million renovation to become "The Flor" and join Hilton’s Tapestry Collection, while Fairmont The Queen Elizabeth in Montreal partners with Mattel for a Barbie-themed experience. Online travel companies, including Orbitz and Expedia, face a lawsuit in Nevada over alleged avoidance of hotel room taxes, potentially amounting to over $1 billion in damages.

Somm Hotel and Spa in Woodinville, Washington, part of Marriott's Autograph Collection, is set to open in the summer of 2025 as part of a $700 million development. Home2 Suites by Hilton Houston/Katy in Texas completed renovations, featuring upgraded guestrooms and amenities. The Balbin Bros. Cigar Factory in Tampa, Florida, is undergoing transformation into a 70-room boutique hotel, aiming to open by March 2025 while preserving its historical value.

Barclays expects a weak quarter for lodging REITs in 3Q23 and adjusted price targets for several hotel stocks. Various hotels across the US, including Marriott Vail and Signia by Hilton Atlanta, are undergoing construction or renovation. Hyatt Hotels plans to launch a vacation rental platform, Homes & Hideaways, while Sonesta opens a new hotel in Houston and Mandarina Oriental expands into Zurich.

STR reported a week ending September 23rd with a 1.2% increase in US hotel RevPAR and a 1.8% rise in Group RevPAR. Barclays lowered price targets for Travel + Leisure to $38 and Marriott Vacations to $118 while maintaining their respective ratings. Marriott International revealed a three-year growth plan, targeting the addition of 230,000 to 270,000 net rooms by 2025 and emphasizing global portfolio expansion and RevPAR growth.