Kim Woinski

Despite projections of persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE’s November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8% increase in RevPAR in 2023, up from CBRE’s previous forecast of a 5.6% increase. The hotel industry in 2023 is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels of demand , nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue, while inching closer to other key 2019 performance metrics. Starwood Capital Group , and Adventurous Journeys Capital Partners , announced the launch of Field & Stream Lodge Co., a branded hospitality platform aiming to create modern and affordable lifestyle lodging across the United States.

Deutsche Bank said they were a bit surprised at ALIS as they realized their views on 2023 RevPAR and margins were more measured than what they sensed from the companies. New York City’s latest plans to crack down on illegal short-term rentals , possibly removing as many as 10,0000 Airbnb listings later this year, is sparking furious debates about housing, hotels, the tourist market and residents’ rights. Buccini/Pollin Group is bringing the W Hotel brand to Orlando with plans for a 22-story hotel tower next door to Epic Universe.

Lodging stocks were modestly higher. The biggest movers included ABNB and SOHO both rising 5% while SONDwas down -6% on the day. Hotel Asset Value Enhancement gave their findings of the ALIS conference.Attendees believe the frustrating transaction market will change in the second half of this year and that there will be more transactions than foreclosures this year. A class-action lawsuit filed Wednesday alleges that four of the main Las Vegas Strip resort operators colluded, via data-sharing software, to artificially inflate the prices of their hotel rooms.

Gordon Haskett downgraded Airbnb to Underperform from Hold. They lowered their price target to $87 from $94. The firm also cut their rating on Booking.com to Hold from Buy. STR reported US lodging data for the week ended 1/21. RevPAR was up 26.2% year over year while up 5.6% versus 2019. The DJIA  rose 9.88 points, or little change. Nasdaq fell 0.2%; S&P 500 was barely changed. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.461%.

Truist said they are finding the sentiment at the ALIS Lodging Conference as mostly positive , with lots of “hope” that the most well-anticipated recession in the history of recessions will be a mild one. STR and Tourism Economics made a modest upgrade to the 2023 U.S. hotel forecast released at ALIS. Four Seasons said they started 2023 with new leadership, brand extensions and strategic portfolio growth.

Jefferies gave their ALIS Conference preview saying they anticipate the lodging management teams will provide incremental color on the trajectory of lodging in a variety of economic scenarios. Marriott International, Inc. announced the company’s deal signings accelerated again in 2022 . The company signed a total of 726 management and franchise agreements. Wyndham Hotels & Resorts is setting its sights on a continued expansion in 2023 , following a banner year that saw the company cap multiple milestones and accomplishments across the globe.

Lodging stocks were higher. SLNA topped the list with a 10% gain followed by AHT and VCSA, both up 6%. We start today’s newsletter on a sad note as many of you probably heard that Bruce White , the founder and chairman of White Lodging , passed away at the age of 70. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust gave a January operations update and include an update on 4Q preliminary results. Remember they roiled the Lodging REIT stocks when they preannounced weaker than expected 4Q results.

After 25 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, U.S. hotel construction increased slightly in December. Wells Fargo cut their price target on Airbnb to $130 from $165. They maintained their Overweight rating. STR said US hotel RevPAR the week ended 1/14 was up 33.1%. RevPAR was up 9.4% versus the same week in 2019.

Lodging stocks were mostly lower. VCSA was down -12%, SOND was down -8% but MCG was up 5% on a new Buy rating. Northland Capital Markets initiated coverage on Selina Hospitality Group with an Outperform rating and $4.50 target price. The scheduled auction of the downtown Hilton Hotel Minneapolis , previously slated for Friday, has been postponed.

The DJIA  fell 392 points but Nasdaq was up 16, the S&P 500 rose 8 points and the 10-year treasury yield was up .02 to 3.54%. Lodging stocks were modestly higher with no major movers. Investment firm Sortis agreed to acquire Ace Group International for $85 million . The all-cash deal will give Sortis the boutique Ace Hotels brand and its hotel management company. International visitors spent more than $15.9 billion on travel to, and tourism-related activities within, the United States , an increase of nearly 57% compared to November 2021