Aimbridge Hospitality

The biggest surprise of this earnings season is how bullish analysts seem to be coming out of it. Lodging Econometrics released its Q4 year-end Global Construction Pipeline Trend Report . At the close of 2022, LE analysts state that the total global construction pipeline stands at 14,267 projects with 2,298,846 rooms. The 473-room, La Concha Resort , in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has joined Marriott International’s Autograph Collection .

Lodging stocks were lower: There was only one mover of note, SLNA with a -6% drop getting near an all-time low today, but there was a sea of red on the screen today. DiamondRock Hospitality reported a solid 4Q. DRH had given preliminary results in January but still beat expectations even with comparable RevPAR below consensus as margins made up the difference. IHG reported a good quarter but the highlight was the announcement of a $750 million share buyback for 2023

The DJIA fell 0.73% while Nasdaq was down 1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.88% and the 10-year treasury yield was roughly flat at 3.671%. Hilton checked nearly all the boxes with their earnings report, kicking off lodging earnings season with a bang . InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is seeking to fend off claims from franchisees five months after a cyber attack that hotel owners say cost them money and disrupted business.

Truist said they are finding the sentiment at the ALIS Lodging Conference as mostly positive , with lots of “hope” that the most well-anticipated recession in the history of recessions will be a mild one. STR and Tourism Economics made a modest upgrade to the 2023 U.S. hotel forecast released at ALIS. Four Seasons said they started 2023 with new leadership, brand extensions and strategic portfolio growth.

After 25 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, U.S. hotel construction increased slightly in December. Wells Fargo cut their price target on Airbnb to $130 from $165. They maintained their Overweight rating. STR said US hotel RevPAR the week ended 1/14 was up 33.1%. RevPAR was up 9.4% versus the same week in 2019.

The DJIA  fell 392 points but Nasdaq was up 16, the S&P 500 rose 8 points and the 10-year treasury yield was up .02 to 3.54%. Lodging stocks were modestly higher with no major movers. Investment firm Sortis agreed to acquire Ace Group International for $85 million . The all-cash deal will give Sortis the boutique Ace Hotels brand and its hotel management company. International visitors spent more than $15.9 billion on travel to, and tourism-related activities within, the United States , an increase of nearly 57% compared to November 2021

Lodging stocks were higher led by AHT, up another 10%. ABNB and PLYA were both up 7% on the day while VCSA was up 6% and HST rose 5%. Truist gave their 2023 lodging preview , saying they see a mixed bag for demand/pricing/supply trends for the lodging companies. Similar to the past nine months, they see “macro over micro” at the moment. DiamondRock Hospitality said their preliminary 4Q22 comparable revenue grew 23.4% year over year and 8.5% compared to 2019.

Yesterday, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust lowered guidance for 4Q results and shook up the industry a bit. Today, Ryman Hospitality did the opposite. Lodging stocks were mostly lower with a long list of new lows, many of them REITs. New lows were set by PEB, PK, AHT, SHO, XHR, ABNB and VCSA Marriott International announced that long-time executive Stephanie Linnartz is leaving the company, effective February 24, 2023.

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust cut their guidance for 4Q , citing a demand impact from Hurricane Nicole in November and weaker business/leisure demand at the end of that month. STR said US hotel RevPAR the week ended 12/17 was up 12% year over year while up 35% over the week in 2019 . U.S. hotel occupancy for Christmas and New Years mirrors 2019 trends , with warm destinations proving popular according to Amadeus .

Aloft Hotels announced it has arrived in Playa del Carmen, Mexico , marking the third Aloft hotel in the Caribbean. Two new hotels are being planned by Performance Capital Partners LLC in Surprise, Arizona . A new dual-brand Marriott TownePlace Suites and Marriott Fairfield Inn & Suites. MCR acquired the Hyatt Place Miami Airport East in Miami, FL , marking the company’s ninth hotel in Florida and its first Hyatt hotel.