Hotel Indigo

Truist said they are finding the sentiment at the ALIS Lodging Conference as mostly positive , with lots of “hope” that the most well-anticipated recession in the history of recessions will be a mild one. STR and Tourism Economics made a modest upgrade to the 2023 U.S. hotel forecast released at ALIS. Four Seasons said they started 2023 with new leadership, brand extensions and strategic portfolio growth.

Lodging stocks were mostly lower. VCSA was down -12%, SOND was down -8% but MCG was up 5% on a new Buy rating. Northland Capital Markets initiated coverage on Selina Hospitality Group with an Outperform rating and $4.50 target price. The scheduled auction of the downtown Hilton Hotel Minneapolis , previously slated for Friday, has been postponed.

Yesterday, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust lowered guidance for 4Q results and shook up the industry a bit. Today, Ryman Hospitality did the opposite. Lodging stocks were mostly lower with a long list of new lows, many of them REITs. New lows were set by PEB, PK, AHT, SHO, XHR, ABNB and VCSA Marriott International announced that long-time executive Stephanie Linnartz is leaving the company, effective February 24, 2023.

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust cut their guidance for 4Q , citing a demand impact from Hurricane Nicole in November and weaker business/leisure demand at the end of that month. STR said US hotel RevPAR the week ended 12/17 was up 12% year over year while up 35% over the week in 2019 . U.S. hotel occupancy for Christmas and New Years mirrors 2019 trends , with warm destinations proving popular according to Amadeus .

Lodging stocks were modestly lower. SOND fell -8%, the biggest mover in the group Friday. SLNA traded down to yet another new low. Both Hersha Hospitality Trust and Host Hotels announced special dividends. HT announced its board of trustees approved a special dividend of $0.50 per common share for the year 2022. Deutsche Ban k said 2022 was a year when the lodging recovery was swiftly realized.

The DJIA ended the day down 142 points, falling after the Fed press conference after raising rates again. Nasdaq was down 86, the S&P 500 fell 24 points and the 10 year treasury yield was unchanged at 3.50%. Citigroup cut their ratings on Hilton and Marriott to Neutral from Buy. US RevPAR was up 16.7% year over year while RevPAR was up 13.7% versus the same week in 2019.

Overall, stocks gave back most of their pre-market gains. Lodging stocks wound up mixed on the day. Commonwealth Hotels acquired the 120-suite Residence Inn Houston-West University and the 100-room Courtyard by Marriott Houston-West University. Aimbridge Hospitality announced the expansion of its portfolio with the addition of three extended stay properties recently acquired by Three Wall Capital, LLC.

Truist reported on takeaways from their Lodging/Leisure conference they had last week. According to CBRE’s September 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast for the overall U.S. lodging industry, rooms RevPAR will exceed 2019 annual levels in 2022. IHG Hotels & Resorts unveiled exceptional 2022 results to-date and a robust future for Hotel Indigo .

On Friday lodging stocks ended higher: BHR rose 12% while AINC was up 7%. SOND fell -7% on the day. Raymond James downgraded Pebblebrook Hotel Trust and Xenia Hotels & Resorts to Market Perform from Outperform while cutting Sunstone Hotel Investors to Underperform from Market Perform. Ryman Hospitality also announced they were boosting their quarterly dividend, declaring the 4Q dividend of $0.25 per share.

MCG and INN both were up 6% while SVC and SLNA were up 5% each. SOND fell -5% on the day. Xenia Hotels & Resorts announced its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $100 million of the company’s outstanding common shares. With the additional authorization U.S. lodging REIT management teams did express concerns about cracks in demand forming with technology customers soon after recent layoff announcements.