HREC Investment Advisors

DJIA fell 174 points, Nasdaq down 85, S&P 500 down 27, and 10-year treasury yield surged to 4.71%. Financial analysis by JP Morgan on Marriott Vacations Worldwide, noting risk factors and a Neutral rating. Acquisitions by Apple Hospitality REIT, renovations of Marriott properties, and promotions at Noble House Hotels & Resorts, KSL Resorts, JLL's Value and Risk Advisory platform, and Auberge Resorts Collection.

CBRE U.S. Hotels State of the Union (October 2023) shows August RevPAR declined by -0.7%, with a -1.7% occupancy drop. Total revenue growth outpaced RevPAR growth in July by 2.5%. U.S. loan origination decreased, and hotel job openings continue to decline. Hotel rates are expected to rise globally in 2024, with potential increases of up to 17.5% in some cities, according to American Express Global Business Travel's Hotel Monitor 2024. The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index was down -2% in September. Year-to-date, the Hotel Brand sub-index increased by 23%, while the Hotel REIT sub-index decreased by -1.5%.

The DJIA ended its winning streak with a 237-point drop, Nasdaq was down 77, and the S&P 500 fell 29 points. The 10-year treasury yield surged by 0.16, closing at a yield of 4.01%. Wyndham reported positive results, with its development pipeline rising and a significant stock buyback. Accor raised its annual profit outlook despite being slightly below analyst expectations. Senators Klobuchar and Moran introduced the Hotel Fees Transparency Act , aiming to crack down on hidden resort fees. They propose federal guidelines for pricing transparency in hotel stays.

Choice Hotels to integrate nearly 600 Radisson Americas hotels onto its reservation delivery engine and loyalty program. Dauntless Capital Partners purchases Hilton Garden Inn Bethesda Downtown for immediate renovation. Excel Hotel Group plans to build a 130-room SpringHill Suites Hotel in Grover Beach, California.

Stock market: DJIA fell 219 points, Nasdaq was down 138, and S&P 500 fell 34 points. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust warns of weaker weekend leisure travel and expects slightly lower 2Q revenue. Various hotel announcements: HHM Hotels launches Echelon Luxury & Lifestyle division, Driftwood Capital acquires Hilton Dallas/Plano Granite Park, LBA Hospitality opens Homewood Suites by Hilton in Greenville, Renaissance Cleveland undergoing renovations, and more.

STR reported US RevPAR for the week ended May 13 was down -1.3% year over year, possibly impacted by Mother’s Day timing. CBRE is again raising its forecast for hotel performance this year . The company has revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6.0% YOY and an increase of $0.43 from its previous forecast. Hilton announced the opening of Canopy by Hilton San Francisco SoMA .

Hilton kicked off earnings season with solid results. You could not get much better than Hilton’s with a solid beat. Travel + Leisure beat expectations, bought back $102 million worth of stock and gave out more in dividends than expected. The stock went down. Sonder has become the first of the SPACs that are either penny stocks or close to it, to receive a deficiency notice from their trading exchange.

Heading into the upcoming 1Q earnings season, JP Morgan said they expect relative upside in 1Q23 RevPAR results and, for the C-Corps, at least in-line net rooms growth with both operating metrics benefiting from improvements in China. A record number of loyalty program members should help hotel brands lower their customer acquisition costs, increased direct-to-consumer engagement and offset any occupancy shortfalls during an economic downturn. Corporate travel spending is tracking toward full recovery to 2019 levels by 2024 or 2025 , but higher costs and climate concerns will keep trip volumes smaller than pre-pandemic levels in real terms.

DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all rose on Friday, and lodging stocks saw gains as well. New properties were acquired or announced in Montana, Atlanta, Ohio, Texas, Colorado, and Madrid. Multiple hotels were sold, and Blackstone secured a €680 million loan for Hotel Investment Partners.

Airbnb definitely got a better response from investors on their 4Q earnings report than traditional lodging analysts. Choice Hotels continued the parade with 4Q revenue and EBITDA comfortably above estimates with the Radisson acquisition helping with that. STR reported U.S. lodging data for the week ended 2/11. RevPAR was up 18.9% year over year.