Paramount Lodging

JP Morgan upgraded Choice Hotels to Neutral and shifted Host Hotels, Park Hotels, Ryman Hospitality, and Sunstone Hotels to Neutral, citing less downside in lodging REITs. CoStar forecasts U.S. hotel demand growth of 1.8% in 2024, with occupancy increasing by 1% and room rate growth aligning with inflation, leading to RevPAR growth of 4.8% this year and 4% in 2024. Barclays shifted to Equal Weight on Marriott Vacations, expressing uncertainty in company-specific execution and favoring Hilton Grand Vacations in the timeshare sector.

Braemar Hotels (BRH) and Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) reported 3Q results, with BRH missing estimates due to its resort/leisure focus, experiencing a -7.1% decline in RevPAR growth. AHT's results exceeded expectations, especially in urban assets, with a 4% growth in RevPAR. Hersha Hospitality shareholders approved a $1.4 billion, all-cash deal for KSL Capital Partners to acquire the hotel REIT, taking them private. The deal, valued at $10 per share, is expected to close in the current quarter. The Global Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey by JLL revealed a surge in lodging demand, with global RevPAR up 10.2% relative to 2019. Key findings include 81% of investors planning to be net buyers, a preference for urban markets (84%), and a focus on luxury and select-service hotels. Investors anticipate a rise in hotel pricing per key and face challenges like the cost of capital, rising insurance costs due to climate risk, and deferred capital expenditures.  

Apple Hospitality REIT reported a modest beat in 3Q results but lowered 4Q guidance due to higher expenses, offsetting improved RevPAR guidance. STR reported that for the week ending November 4, US RevPAR was down by -2.1%, with a -4% decrease in occupancy, and a -7.4% drop in Group RevPAR. Latin America's hotel construction pipeline shows growth with 579 projects and 95,144 rooms in Q3 2023, up 6% in projects and 5% in rooms year-over-year, with Mexico leading the way.

Hilton Grand Vacations is acquiring Bluegreen Vacations for approximately $1.5 billion, expanding its membership base and resort portfolio. HEI Hotels & Resorts takes over management of the Renaissance Times Square hotel in New York. Hyatt is collaborating with Parks Hospitality Holdings to develop four new properties in Mexico, including the Park Hyatt Cancun and Grand Hyatt Mexico Santa Fe.

Apple Hospitality and Xenia Hotels were the next up to report earnings. APLE beat expectations and continues to be one of the few hotel REITs reporting EBITDA above 2019 levels. XHR also beat expectations on a higher top line with RevPAR growth of 23.9%. STR reported US lodging data for the week ended April 29. Year over year hotel RevPAR was up 5.6%.

Hilton kicked off earnings season with solid results. You could not get much better than Hilton’s with a solid beat. Travel + Leisure beat expectations, bought back $102 million worth of stock and gave out more in dividends than expected. The stock went down. Sonder has become the first of the SPACs that are either penny stocks or close to it, to receive a deficiency notice from their trading exchange.

Truist said they have seen no noticeable changes to overall corporate booking and pricing trends in the first 10 days following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank . On March 20, Membership Collective Group commenced trading on the NYSE under its new name and ticker, Soho House & Co Inc. / SHCO. In a joint venture, NewcrestImage and Hospitality Capital Partners have acquired 16 hotels with a total of 2,155 rooms for $137.3 million from Service Properties Trust .

STR gave U.S. lodging data for the week ended 3/18. US hotel RevPAR rose 10.4% year over year. When compared with the same week in 2019, US hotel RevPAR was up 20.8%. We can’t tell if the markets genuinely hate U.S. Fed Chief Jerome Powell or if the guy should just have a stand-in for his press conferences. Redburn Partners lowered its rating on InterContinental Hotels Group to Sell. UBS Group downgraded shares of Melia Hotels International from a Buy rating to a Sell rating.

Lodging stocks were mostly lower. VCSA was down -12%, SOND was down -8% but MCG was up 5% on a new Buy rating. Northland Capital Markets initiated coverage on Selina Hospitality Group with an Outperform rating and $4.50 target price. The scheduled auction of the downtown Hilton Hotel Minneapolis , previously slated for Friday, has been postponed.

Lodging stocks were mixed but the biggest movers were to the upside. VCSA and SLNA both rose 6% on the day. The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell -10% in December. That put all of 2022 down -15% from 2021. The Hotel Brand sub-index was down -9.2% in December from November while the Hotel REIT sub-index was down -12.8% Sonesta International Hotels Corporation announced the expansion of its global development strategy to include The James brand as part of the Sonesta Franchise portfolio in the U.S. and in Latin America.