Pebblebrook Hotel Trust

JP Morgan gave their 2023 lodging outlook presentation, saying they see the REITs as relative underperformers versus the C-Corps. They see Wyndham Hotels and Hyatt Hotels as relative out performers within lodging. The DJIA rose 186 points while Nasdaq was up 107, the S&P 500 rose 27 points and the 10-year treasury yield was up .10 to 3.62%. Lodging stocks were higher. Barclays said December lodging RevPAR ended on a strong note, very notable after Pebblebrook Hotel Trust’s guidance cut during the month.

The DJIA rose 701 points on Friday while Nasdaq was up 264, the S&P 500 rose 87 points and the 10 year treasury yield was down .15 to 3.57% Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. expects to report occupancy of approximately 64% for the fourth quarter of 2022 with an ADR of approximately $469 resulting in RevPAR of approximately $301. Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. expects to report occupancy of approximately 68% for the fourth quarter of 2022 with an ADR of approximately $175 resulting in RevPAR of approximately $118.

Yesterday, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust lowered guidance for 4Q results and shook up the industry a bit. Today, Ryman Hospitality did the opposite. Lodging stocks were mostly lower with a long list of new lows, many of them REITs. New lows were set by PEB, PK, AHT, SHO, XHR, ABNB and VCSA Marriott International announced that long-time executive Stephanie Linnartz is leaving the company, effective February 24, 2023.

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust cut their guidance for 4Q , citing a demand impact from Hurricane Nicole in November and weaker business/leisure demand at the end of that month. STR said US hotel RevPAR the week ended 12/17 was up 12% year over year while up 35% over the week in 2019 . U.S. hotel occupancy for Christmas and New Years mirrors 2019 trends , with warm destinations proving popular according to Amadeus .

On Friday lodging stocks ended higher: BHR rose 12% while AINC was up 7%. SOND fell -7% on the day. Raymond James downgraded Pebblebrook Hotel Trust and Xenia Hotels & Resorts to Market Perform from Outperform while cutting Sunstone Hotel Investors to Underperform from Market Perform. Ryman Hospitality also announced they were boosting their quarterly dividend, declaring the 4Q dividend of $0.25 per share.

Morgan Stanley re-launched coverage on the lodging sector, saying they prefer C-Corps over REITs . Truist updated their estimates and price targets on some hotel names in their coverage. According to the NY Daily News, more than 10,000 Airbnb listings for short-term rentals in New York City are likely to disappear when tight new housing rules take effect next year.

We may be seeing a short week slowdown already starting in the financial markets. Lodging stocks were modestly lower. Deutsche Bank 's  Gaming, Lodging, Leisure & Restaurant Conference 'soverarching chorus was stability in trends and company outlooks. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust , in their monthly update, referenced that the end of October brought a return of seasonality.

Ryman Hospitality Properties beat 3Q EBITDA estimates while giving a small 4Q guidance raise. Lodging stocks were mixed. SOND rose 8% but Selina (SLNA) plunged another -23% and is now down to near where it was in price when they completed the merger with BOA. Timeshare is definitely a mixed bag this earnings season. Following up on TNL’s disappointing results, Marriott Vacations gave a mixed 3Q along with guidance that seems mixed as well.

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust reported sold 3Q22 earnings, but since they give monthly updates and pre-announced, there was no surprise. While lodging stocks were higher, the action in Selina on Friday was just as ridiculous as on Thursday but in the other direction. While Travel + Leisure’s stock price rebounded a little bit after Thursday’s earnings-induced decline, Credit Suisse lowered the boom on them.

The DJIA surged 749 points on Friday while Nasdaq was up 245, the S&P 500 rose 87 points and the 10 year treasury yield was down .01 to 4.21%. Lodging stocks were modestly higher. According to September 2022 data from STR , Middle East & Africa was the only world region to show an increase in overall hotel pipeline activity at the end of the third quarter. IHG Hotels & Resorts reported a good 3Q, with RevPAR up 28% year over year and up 2.7% from 3Q19. The problem is they also announced Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson is leaving his CFO position.