Selina

The DJIA  fell 351 points while Nasdaq was down 225, the S&P 500 fell 58 points and the 10 year treasury yield was down .09 to 3.51%. What happened to the Santa Claus Rally? Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. reported preliminary portfolio occupancy of approximately 64% for November 2022 with an ADR of approximately $394 resulting in RevPAR of approximately $253. Marriott International, Inc . announced the completion of an $11 million dollar revitalization of its 395-room Falls Church Marriott Fairview Park , in Falls Church, Virginia .

Morgan Stanley re-launched coverage on the lodging sector, saying they prefer C-Corps over REITs . Truist updated their estimates and price targets on some hotel names in their coverage. According to the NY Daily News, more than 10,000 Airbnb listings for short-term rentals in New York City are likely to disappear when tight new housing rules take effect next year.

Truist gave their observations on the latest forward-looking booking and pricing trends for US hotels and checks with contacts. STR’s global “bubble chart” update through November 19, 2022 showed the strongest performance of the year thus far. The U.S. Travel Association’s latest biannual travel forecast shows a downgrade in international inbound travel for the remainder of this year and for 2023.

For a change, the markets went up when Fed Chief Powell spoke. They interpreted his commentary and body language as blinking, that the bulk of the interest rate hikes are over. STR said  US hotel RevPAR  the week ended November 26 was  down -0.1% year over year . Cambria Hotels  announced the  opening of its six-story, 121-room location in downtown Minneapolis  to complete the newly constructed dual-hotel building.

Raymond James warned that inflation and a dimming economic outlook could begin to weigh on travel starting in the fourth quarter. STR and Tourism Economics adjusted occupancy slightly downward but maintained previous projections for ADR and RevPAR in their final U.S. hotel forecast revision of 2022. Following seasonal patterns, Canada’s hotel performance fell from the month prior but the ADR and RevPAR were higher than the pre-pandemic comparables

Lodging stocks were mostly lower. SOND was up 6% but that was pretty much it for any type of positive movement.  MCG fell another -11%, SLNA was down -7%, SOHO and ABNB both fell -5%. JP Morgan lowered their rating on Membership Collective Group to Neutral from Overweight. JPM said their downgraded was based on MGC’s exposure to Europe. Los Cabos Tourism Board announced unprecedented growth in tourism arrivals is expected by the end of 2022 with more than 3.3 million visitors.

Let’s go backwards to give you an overview of today’s market. The 10-year treasury yield plunged 0.32 to 3.83%. That is a nearly 8% drop in the yield on a modestly better CPI report. Vacasa reported 3Q results that went over as well with investors as their weak fourth quarter guidance. The LWHA Q3 2022 Major U.S. Hotel Sales Survey includes 119 single asset sale transactions over $10 million which totaled roughly $3.7 billion.

DiamondRock Hospitality reported 3Q results, beating the preliminary results they announced two weeks ago. Jefferies cut its rating on Xenia Hotels & Resorts to Hold from Buy. Lodging stocks were mixed. SLNA plunged another -20%, quickly becoming the biggest disaster in a long line of SPAC disappointments in the past year

Lodging stocks were down before the Fed decision to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points and conference call but the selling accelerated after, led by the REITs, not surprisingly. Investors did not take the earnings reports from Airbnb, Ashford Hospitality Trust or Xenia Hotels & Resorts very well. Meanwhile STR reported for the week ended 10/29, US hotel RevPAR was up 33.5% year over year.

Ryman Hospitality Properties beat 3Q EBITDA estimates while giving a small 4Q guidance raise. Lodging stocks were mixed. SOND rose 8% but Selina (SLNA) plunged another -23% and is now down to near where it was in price when they completed the merger with BOA. Timeshare is definitely a mixed bag this earnings season. Following up on TNL’s disappointing results, Marriott Vacations gave a mixed 3Q along with guidance that seems mixed as well.