Service Properties Trust

Despite the jitters and dire predictions we have been hearing for getting close to a year, lodging demand remains consistent with any concern of deterioration stemming from headline economic risk not yet manifesting in fundamentals. Baird reported on something we touched on recently, insider buying at lodging companies . A majority of the U.S. corporate travel buyers expect their company’s business travel to ramp up and return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023

Lodging stocks were mixed but the big movers were all to the downside. SLNA traded down another -7% to another all-time low. VCSA and MCG were both down -6%. Service Properties Trust kept its positive momentum going, reporting a 159% increase in normalized FFO in 4Q22. Xenia Hotels & Resorts reported 4Q results slightly ahead of expectations but gave a mixed 2023 outlook.

Earnings rolled out at a rapid pace with  Hyatt, Wyndham, Host and Hersha reporting results. Hyatt reported above expectations and sounded very confident on the conference call. The lodging stock star of the day was definitely  Service Properties Trust . SVC owns nearly 8% of Travel Centers of America and RMR has 1.67%. Travel Center agreed to be bought by BP for $1.3 billion. CBRE is raising its forecast for hotel performance on the heels of industry gains in Q4 2022 and the expectation of slightly positive GDP growth in 2023.

BofA Securities initiated coverage on Marriott Vacations with a Neutral rating and a $180 price target. The Wall Street Journal published an article on how hotel companies are stepping up efforts to lure competitors’ hotels to their own brands. The article referenced Hilton’s new Spark by Hilton brand. We had heard those concerns about upcoming maturities from Service Properties Trust when we were positive about their resumption of the previous dividend, giving them an 11% yield at the time.

Wells Fargo changed price targets on a bunch of hotel names in their coverage. In November 2022, total non-US resident international visitor volume to the United States increased 61.3% compared to November 2021 According to the Q4 2022 Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report for Canada by Lodging Econometrics, Canada’s total construction pipeline stands at 267 projects/35,758 rooms.

DiamondRock Hospitality reported 3Q results, beating the preliminary results they announced two weeks ago. Jefferies cut its rating on Xenia Hotels & Resorts to Hold from Buy. Lodging stocks were mixed. SLNA plunged another -20%, quickly becoming the biggest disaster in a long line of SPAC disappointments in the past year

Bernstein  initiated coverage on  Airbnb  with an Outperform rating and $143 price target. B of A Securities  cut their rating on Membership Collective to Underperform from Buy. They lowered their price target to $4 from $12. Service Properties Trust  announced it amended the agreement governing its revolving credit facility and exercised its option to extend its maturity date to July 2023.

The  DJIA  dropped 1.54%,  Nasdaq  fell 2.84%, the  S&P 500  declined 2.11% and the  10-year treasury yield  rose slightly, to 3.76%. After an outstanding summer of travel,  Amadeus’  Agency360 and Demand360 data sources are showing  strong recovery indicators for the remainder of 2022  and evidence of growing traveler confidence as the sector looks towards 2023. Service Properties Trust  announced it entered into a purchase and sale agreement to sell  16 Marriott branded hotels  totaling 2,155 keys for $137.3 million.

The vast majority of lodging company earnings, both REIT and C-Corp , have been very positive, with the REITs being the biggest surprise. Crescent Hotels & Resorts has added The Viv, Anaheim, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel , to its Latitudes: Lifestyle by Crescent collection. Black Creek Mexico announced that Grupo Alojica completed the Westin Resort & Spa acquisition, in Puerto Vallarta , from affiliates of Marriott Vacations Worldwide .