Sonder Holdings Inc.

Raymond James warned that inflation and a dimming economic outlook could begin to weigh on travel starting in the fourth quarter. STR and Tourism Economics adjusted occupancy slightly downward but maintained previous projections for ADR and RevPAR in their final U.S. hotel forecast revision of 2022. Following seasonal patterns, Canada’s hotel performance fell from the month prior but the ADR and RevPAR were higher than the pre-pandemic comparables

We may be seeing a short week slowdown already starting in the financial markets. Lodging stocks were modestly lower. Deutsche Bank 's  Gaming, Lodging, Leisure & Restaurant Conference 'soverarching chorus was stability in trends and company outlooks. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust , in their monthly update, referenced that the end of October brought a return of seasonality.

Lodging stocks were mostly lower. SOND was up 6% but that was pretty much it for any type of positive movement.  MCG fell another -11%, SLNA was down -7%, SOHO and ABNB both fell -5%. JP Morgan lowered their rating on Membership Collective Group to Neutral from Overweight. JPM said their downgraded was based on MGC’s exposure to Europe. Los Cabos Tourism Board announced unprecedented growth in tourism arrivals is expected by the end of 2022 with more than 3.3 million visitors.

Let’s go backwards to give you an overview of today’s market. The 10-year treasury yield plunged 0.32 to 3.83%. That is a nearly 8% drop in the yield on a modestly better CPI report. Vacasa reported 3Q results that went over as well with investors as their weak fourth quarter guidance. The LWHA Q3 2022 Major U.S. Hotel Sales Survey includes 119 single asset sale transactions over $10 million which totaled roughly $3.7 billion.

Lodging stocks were down before the Fed decision to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points and conference call but the selling accelerated after, led by the REITs, not surprisingly. Investors did not take the earnings reports from Airbnb, Ashford Hospitality Trust or Xenia Hotels & Resorts very well. Meanwhile STR reported for the week ended 10/29, US hotel RevPAR was up 33.5% year over year.

Ryman Hospitality Properties beat 3Q EBITDA estimates while giving a small 4Q guidance raise. Lodging stocks were mixed. SOND rose 8% but Selina (SLNA) plunged another -23% and is now down to near where it was in price when they completed the merger with BOA. Timeshare is definitely a mixed bag this earnings season. Following up on TNL’s disappointing results, Marriott Vacations gave a mixed 3Q along with guidance that seems mixed as well.

Club Med is celebrating its seventy-second birthday as it expands to even more places around the globe. Deutsche Bank gave its first broad-based downward revision to hotel REIT estimates since the travel recovery began in spring 2021. The growing demand for luxury branded residences is stronger than ever, especially in Florida.

The DJIA was up 338 points while Nasdaq was up 97, the S&P 500 was up 42 points, while the 10-year treasury yield was down nearly .02 to 4.00%. Evercore ISI Group upped its rating on DiamondRock Hospitality to Outperform from In-Line. US Travel’s latest Business Travel Tracker finds American companies increasingly paring back pandemic-era restrictions on business travel

Any hope the Fed would be slowing down interest rate hikes just went right out the window with today’s inflation numbers. Lodging stocks were hit rather hard. According to Atlas Hospitality Group , during the first half of 2022, the total dollar volume for hotels bought in the Bay Area market in California was $660.5 million, down 66.8% from the $1.99 billion in hotel purchases during the first six months of 2021. Sonesta International Hotels Corporation announced several key developments to support future expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean , including the renewal of its ongoing master franchise relationship with GHL Hoteles.

The DJIA surged 515 points, Nasdaq was up 361, the S&P 500 was up 88 and suddenly the 10 year treasury yield is calm and the indexes are nuts again. STR said US Lodging RevPAR was up 12.2% year over year for the week ended 8/6. Global travel prices are predicted to continue to increase in the remaining months of 2022 and throughout 2023, according to the 2023 Global Business Travel Forecast.