Vacasa

Truist gave their observations on the latest forward-looking booking and pricing trends for US hotels and checks with contacts. STR’s global “bubble chart” update through November 19, 2022 showed the strongest performance of the year thus far. The U.S. Travel Association’s latest biannual travel forecast shows a downgrade in international inbound travel for the remainder of this year and for 2023.

Raymond James warned that inflation and a dimming economic outlook could begin to weigh on travel starting in the fourth quarter. STR and Tourism Economics adjusted occupancy slightly downward but maintained previous projections for ADR and RevPAR in their final U.S. hotel forecast revision of 2022. Following seasonal patterns, Canada’s hotel performance fell from the month prior but the ADR and RevPAR were higher than the pre-pandemic comparables

Lodging stocks were mostly lower. SOND was up 6% but that was pretty much it for any type of positive movement.  MCG fell another -11%, SLNA was down -7%, SOHO and ABNB both fell -5%. JP Morgan lowered their rating on Membership Collective Group to Neutral from Overweight. JPM said their downgraded was based on MGC’s exposure to Europe. Los Cabos Tourism Board announced unprecedented growth in tourism arrivals is expected by the end of 2022 with more than 3.3 million visitors.

The DJIA rose 56 points while Nasdaq was up 162, the S&P 500 rose 35 points and the 10 year treasury yield fell .07 to 3.80%. Lodging stocks were modestly higher. Truist published a report on Vacation Ownership following 3Q results from the public companies involved in the segment. Genuine Hospitality announced the opening of Tru by Hilton Naperville Chicago , the first Tru by Hilton in Illinois.

Let’s go backwards to give you an overview of today’s market. The 10-year treasury yield plunged 0.32 to 3.83%. That is a nearly 8% drop in the yield on a modestly better CPI report. Vacasa reported 3Q results that went over as well with investors as their weak fourth quarter guidance. The LWHA Q3 2022 Major U.S. Hotel Sales Survey includes 119 single asset sale transactions over $10 million which totaled roughly $3.7 billion.

The DJIA jumped 551 points today while Nasdaq was up 354, the S&P 500 was up 95 points and the 10-year treasury yield was up .01 at 4.02%. The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell -9.1% in September. Despite continued strong RevPAR, both year over year and 2019 comps, the stock index has dropped -20.6% in the first 9 months of the year. Driftwood Capital broke ground on the Element by Westin , a new 130-key extended-stay hotel located on prime oceanfront property in Melbourne, FL .

Truist lowered target prices on their vacation ownership names despite publishing a positive report on their beat and raise quarters along with the continued return of capital. STR and Tourism Economics adjusted occupancy downward but lifted projections once again for ADR in the revised U.S. hotel forecast just presented at the Hotel Data Conference . Mission Hill Hospitality has acquired the Courtyard by Marriott Lenox and Hampton Inn & Suites Berkshire-Lenox , located in the heart of the Berkshire region of Western Massachusetts.