New York

Lodging stocks were mixed but the big movers were all to the downside. SLNA traded down another -7% to another all-time low. VCSA and MCG were both down -6%. Service Properties Trust kept its positive momentum going, reporting a 159% increase in normalized FFO in 4Q22. Xenia Hotels & Resorts reported 4Q results slightly ahead of expectations but gave a mixed 2023 outlook.

Lodging stocks were mostly lower on Friday. PLYA bucked the trend with an 8% gain on stronger-than-expected earnings. SOND was down another -8%, VCSA fell -7% and SLNA traded down to yet another new all-time low. Besides Playa Hotels’ strong results, Ryman Hospitality Properties took part in the winding down of earnings season with results that were better than their December update. HRI Hospitality announced the topping out of its new hotel project, Tempo by Hilton Nashville Downtown .

Earnings rolled out at a rapid pace with  Hyatt, Wyndham, Host and Hersha reporting results. Hyatt reported above expectations and sounded very confident on the conference call. The lodging stock star of the day was definitely  Service Properties Trust . SVC owns nearly 8% of Travel Centers of America and RMR has 1.67%. Travel Center agreed to be bought by BP for $1.3 billion. CBRE is raising its forecast for hotel performance on the heels of industry gains in Q4 2022 and the expectation of slightly positive GDP growth in 2023.

Marriott International followed up Hilton’s solid 4Q earnings report with one of their own, easily beating estimates on solid 4.6% RevPAR growth. 21c Museum Hotels will open its tenth hotel this spring, a 10-story lodging in St. Louis, Missouri.  Marriott was up $6.90 a share, Hyatt was up $4.73, Hilton was up $2.38 and Airbnb is currently surging double digits in after hours trading on their earnings report

Wells Fargo changed price targets on a bunch of hotel names in their coverage. In November 2022, total non-US resident international visitor volume to the United States increased 61.3% compared to November 2021 According to the Q4 2022 Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report for Canada by Lodging Econometrics, Canada’s total construction pipeline stands at 267 projects/35,758 rooms.

Despite projections of persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE’s November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8% increase in RevPAR in 2023, up from CBRE’s previous forecast of a 5.6% increase. The hotel industry in 2023 is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels of demand , nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue, while inching closer to other key 2019 performance metrics. Starwood Capital Group , and Adventurous Journeys Capital Partners , announced the launch of Field & Stream Lodge Co., a branded hospitality platform aiming to create modern and affordable lifestyle lodging across the United States.

Deutsche Bank said they were a bit surprised at ALIS as they realized their views on 2023 RevPAR and margins were more measured than what they sensed from the companies. New York City’s latest plans to crack down on illegal short-term rentals , possibly removing as many as 10,0000 Airbnb listings later this year, is sparking furious debates about housing, hotels, the tourist market and residents’ rights. Buccini/Pollin Group is bringing the W Hotel brand to Orlando with plans for a 22-story hotel tower next door to Epic Universe.

After 25 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, U.S. hotel construction increased slightly in December. Wells Fargo cut their price target on Airbnb to $130 from $165. They maintained their Overweight rating. STR said US hotel RevPAR the week ended 1/14 was up 33.1%. RevPAR was up 9.4% versus the same week in 2019.

Lodging stocks were higher led by AHT, up another 10%. ABNB and PLYA were both up 7% on the day while VCSA was up 6% and HST rose 5%. Truist gave their 2023 lodging preview , saying they see a mixed bag for demand/pricing/supply trends for the lodging companies. Similar to the past nine months, they see “macro over micro” at the moment. DiamondRock Hospitality said their preliminary 4Q22 comparable revenue grew 23.4% year over year and 8.5% compared to 2019.

The DJIA ended the day down 142 points, falling after the Fed press conference after raising rates again. Nasdaq was down 86, the S&P 500 fell 24 points and the 10 year treasury yield was unchanged at 3.50%. Citigroup cut their ratings on Hilton and Marriott to Neutral from Buy. US RevPAR was up 16.7% year over year while RevPAR was up 13.7% versus the same week in 2019.