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Baird’s 2023 REIT Outlook Is Cautious

Lodging stocks were higher with the only big mover of note once again being AHT, up another 6%. Baird gave their 2023 Hotel REIT outlook saying they are taking a more balanced approach in early 2023 as macroeconomic risks and growing expense pressures keep them selective. STR announced U.S. lodging data for the week ended January 7th. Year over year RevPAR was up 21.8% on easy comps due to holiday/school timing and the Omicron outbreak last year.

Year-End Hotel News Roundup

EF Hutton initiated coverage on Selina Hospitality with a Buy rating and $6.50 price target. STR reported US lodging data for the week ended 12/24. RevPAR was down -0.2% year over year while down -7.6% versus the same week in 2019. Bluegreen Vacation Holdings said they had a total of 3,040,882 shares of Class A Common Stock tendered in their cash tender offer to purchase up to 4.5 million common shares at $25 per share.

Chatham Lodging Trust and Park Hotels Restore Their Dividends

Chatham Lodging Trust announced its board of trustees reinstated their common dividend, announcing a fourth-quarter common share dividend of $0.07 per common share. Park Hotels & Resorts announced a $0.25 per share fourth-quarter cash dividend. $0.12 per share of that represents the fourth quarter payment based on 2022 results. Lodging stocks were modestly higher. The only big mover of note was MCG , up 8%.

Weakening or Strengthening? Hotel Performance Forecasts 

Raymond James warned that inflation and a dimming economic outlook could begin to weigh on travel starting in the fourth quarter. STR and Tourism Economics adjusted occupancy slightly downward but maintained previous projections for ADR and RevPAR in their final U.S. hotel forecast revision of 2022. Following seasonal patterns, Canada’s hotel performance fell from the month prior but the ADR and RevPAR were higher than the pre-pandemic comparables

Los Cabos, Mexico’s Growth Attracts More Hotel Brands

Lodging stocks were mostly lower. SOND was up 6% but that was pretty much it for any type of positive movement.  MCG fell another -11%, SLNA was down -7%, SOHO and ABNB both fell -5%. JP Morgan lowered their rating on Membership Collective Group to Neutral from Overweight. JPM said their downgraded was based on MGC’s exposure to Europe. Los Cabos Tourism Board announced unprecedented growth in tourism arrivals is expected by the end of 2022 with more than 3.3 million visitors.

Choice Hotels Receives Mixed Response to Earnings

Lodging stocks were mixed. Choice (CHH) was the big loser, down -9%, while MCG was down -7% and AINC fell -6%. Choice Hotels received a mixed response to their 3Q earnings report from analysts and a big thumbs down from investors. Hilton announced the opening of its two-hundredth hotel in the Caribbean and Latin America, Waldorf Astoria Cancun , a 173-room luxury resort set on 100 acres of coastline.

September Marked Third Consecutive Month of U.S. Hotel Construction Growth

The DJIA fell 91 points, Nasdaq was down 53, the S&P 500 fell 25 points and the 10-year treasury yield rose another .10 to 4.23%. Truist believes the companies most likely to see the greatest degree of earnings outperformance this 3Q earnings season will be those with the highest exposure to the group segment. A new survey from the Hospitality Asset Managers Association painted a somewhat rosy picture for the industry.

U.S. Businesses Pare Back Travel Restrictions

The DJIA was up 338 points while Nasdaq was up 97, the S&P 500 was up 42 points, while the 10-year treasury yield was down nearly .02 to 4.00%. Evercore ISI Group upped its rating on DiamondRock Hospitality to Outperform from In-Line. US Travel’s latest Business Travel Tracker finds American companies increasingly paring back pandemic-era restrictions on business travel

All Hotel Classes Are Showing ADR Recovery

The DJIA fell 400 points on Friday while Nasdaq was down 328, the S&P 500 fell 86 points and the 10- year treasury yield pierced the 4% ceiling and probably is not done yet. According to CoStar , boutique hotels are performing well in 2022 and all classes show recovery in ADR, surpassing 2019 peak levels and leading the U.S. hotel industry. Hilton and Dittmar Company announced the signing of Hilton at The Key, Arlington-Rosslyn , located just minutes from Washington D.C. in Arlington, VA.