Orlando

Marriott Vacations missed expectations with their 4Q report, primarily due to their exchange and rental businesses as their core VOI business outperformed. Chatham Lodging Trust reported an in-line 4Q for EBITDA. They did not give 2023 guidance. Accor reported good results and forecast higher RevPAR for 2023 , very optimistic due to the return of the Chinese traveler.

Lodging stocks were lower: There was only one mover of note, SLNA with a -6% drop getting near an all-time low today, but there was a sea of red on the screen today. DiamondRock Hospitality reported a solid 4Q. DRH had given preliminary results in January but still beat expectations even with comparable RevPAR below consensus as margins made up the difference. IHG reported a good quarter but the highlight was the announcement of a $750 million share buyback for 2023

Earnings rolled out at a rapid pace with  Hyatt, Wyndham, Host and Hersha reporting results. Hyatt reported above expectations and sounded very confident on the conference call. The lodging stock star of the day was definitely  Service Properties Trust . SVC owns nearly 8% of Travel Centers of America and RMR has 1.67%. Travel Center agreed to be bought by BP for $1.3 billion. CBRE is raising its forecast for hotel performance on the heels of industry gains in Q4 2022 and the expectation of slightly positive GDP growth in 2023.

Morgan Stanley changed price targets on its covered hotel companies . Hilton’s PT was lowered to $167 from $171, while Wyndham’s PT was upped to $90 from $87. Chatham Lodging Trust announced they repaid in full three mortgages with outstanding principal of $73.3 million and a weighted average interest rate of 8%. Four Seasons Resort and Residences Los Cabos at Costa Palmas will begin taking reservations for its ultra-luxury Private Retreats collection soon.

BofA Securities initiated coverage on Marriott Vacations with a Neutral rating and a $180 price target. The Wall Street Journal published an article on how hotel companies are stepping up efforts to lure competitors’ hotels to their own brands. The article referenced Hilton’s new Spark by Hilton brand. We had heard those concerns about upcoming maturities from Service Properties Trust when we were positive about their resumption of the previous dividend, giving them an 11% yield at the time.

Wells Fargo changed price targets on a bunch of hotel names in their coverage. In November 2022, total non-US resident international visitor volume to the United States increased 61.3% compared to November 2021 According to the Q4 2022 Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report for Canada by Lodging Econometrics, Canada’s total construction pipeline stands at 267 projects/35,758 rooms.

Deutsche Bank said they were a bit surprised at ALIS as they realized their views on 2023 RevPAR and margins were more measured than what they sensed from the companies. New York City’s latest plans to crack down on illegal short-term rentals , possibly removing as many as 10,0000 Airbnb listings later this year, is sparking furious debates about housing, hotels, the tourist market and residents’ rights. Buccini/Pollin Group is bringing the W Hotel brand to Orlando with plans for a 22-story hotel tower next door to Epic Universe.

Lodging stocks were modestly higher. The biggest movers included ABNB and SOHO both rising 5% while SONDwas down -6% on the day. Hotel Asset Value Enhancement gave their findings of the ALIS conference.Attendees believe the frustrating transaction market will change in the second half of this year and that there will be more transactions than foreclosures this year. A class-action lawsuit filed Wednesday alleges that four of the main Las Vegas Strip resort operators colluded, via data-sharing software, to artificially inflate the prices of their hotel rooms.

JP Morgan gave their 2023 lodging outlook presentation, saying they see the REITs as relative underperformers versus the C-Corps. They see Wyndham Hotels and Hyatt Hotels as relative out performers within lodging. The DJIA rose 186 points while Nasdaq was up 107, the S&P 500 rose 27 points and the 10-year treasury yield was up .10 to 3.62%. Lodging stocks were higher. Barclays said December lodging RevPAR ended on a strong note, very notable after Pebblebrook Hotel Trust’s guidance cut during the month.

Yesterday, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust lowered guidance for 4Q results and shook up the industry a bit. Today, Ryman Hospitality did the opposite. Lodging stocks were mostly lower with a long list of new lows, many of them REITs. New lows were set by PEB, PK, AHT, SHO, XHR, ABNB and VCSA Marriott International announced that long-time executive Stephanie Linnartz is leaving the company, effective February 24, 2023.