San Francisco

Marriott Vacations missed expectations with their 4Q report, primarily due to their exchange and rental businesses as their core VOI business outperformed. Chatham Lodging Trust reported an in-line 4Q for EBITDA. They did not give 2023 guidance. Accor reported good results and forecast higher RevPAR for 2023 , very optimistic due to the return of the Chinese traveler.

Lodging stocks were higher. ABNB led the group with a 7% rise while MCG was up 5%. Raymond James upped their price target on Hilton to $165 from $150. They maintained their Outperform rating. Ian Schrager and Ed Sheetz have stepped in to possibly partner with Chetrit Group , to rescue its landmark Bossert Hotel , located in Brooklyn Heights, New York.

Lodging stocks were higher. SLNA topped the list with a 10% gain followed by AHT and VCSA, both up 6%. We start today’s newsletter on a sad note as many of you probably heard that Bruce White , the founder and chairman of White Lodging , passed away at the age of 70. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust gave a January operations update and include an update on 4Q preliminary results. Remember they roiled the Lodging REIT stocks when they preannounced weaker than expected 4Q results.

Lodging stocks were higher led by AHT, up another 10%. ABNB and PLYA were both up 7% on the day while VCSA was up 6% and HST rose 5%. Truist gave their 2023 lodging preview , saying they see a mixed bag for demand/pricing/supply trends for the lodging companies. Similar to the past nine months, they see “macro over micro” at the moment. DiamondRock Hospitality said their preliminary 4Q22 comparable revenue grew 23.4% year over year and 8.5% compared to 2019.

Yesterday, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust lowered guidance for 4Q results and shook up the industry a bit. Today, Ryman Hospitality did the opposite. Lodging stocks were mostly lower with a long list of new lows, many of them REITs. New lows were set by PEB, PK, AHT, SHO, XHR, ABNB and VCSA Marriott International announced that long-time executive Stephanie Linnartz is leaving the company, effective February 24, 2023.

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust cut their guidance for 4Q , citing a demand impact from Hurricane Nicole in November and weaker business/leisure demand at the end of that month. STR said US hotel RevPAR the week ended 12/17 was up 12% year over year while up 35% over the week in 2019 . U.S. hotel occupancy for Christmas and New Years mirrors 2019 trends , with warm destinations proving popular according to Amadeus .

Baird picked the hotel real-estate investment trust Xenia Hotels & Resorts as their Best Idea for 2023. The Wall Street Journal published a very positive article on Hilton , including an interview with CEO Chris Nassetta . Pyramid Global Hospitality closed the acquisition of the operating division of Provenance Hotels .

Morgan Stanley re-launched coverage on the lodging sector, saying they prefer C-Corps over REITs . Truist updated their estimates and price targets on some hotel names in their coverage. According to the NY Daily News, more than 10,000 Airbnb listings for short-term rentals in New York City are likely to disappear when tight new housing rules take effect next year.

MCG and INN both were up 6% while SVC and SLNA were up 5% each. SOND fell -5% on the day. Xenia Hotels & Resorts announced its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $100 million of the company’s outstanding common shares. With the additional authorization U.S. lodging REIT management teams did express concerns about cracks in demand forming with technology customers soon after recent layoff announcements.

Let’s go backwards to give you an overview of today’s market. The 10-year treasury yield plunged 0.32 to 3.83%. That is a nearly 8% drop in the yield on a modestly better CPI report. Vacasa reported 3Q results that went over as well with investors as their weak fourth quarter guidance. The LWHA Q3 2022 Major U.S. Hotel Sales Survey includes 119 single asset sale transactions over $10 million which totaled roughly $3.7 billion.