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North America

Two Forecasts Point to Strong 2023 Hotel Performance

Alan Woinski and Kim Woinski

January 31st, 2023

Skift Take

  • Despite projections of persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE’s November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8% increase in RevPAR in 2023, up from CBRE’s previous forecast of a 5.6% increase.
  • The hotel industry in 2023 is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels of demand, nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue, while inching closer to other key 2019 performance metrics.
  • Starwood Capital Group, and Adventurous Journeys Capital Partners, announced the launch of Field & Stream Lodge Co., a branded hospitality platform aiming to create modern and affordable lifestyle lodging across the United States.

The DJIA rose 369 points while Nasdaq was up 191, the S&P 500 rose 59 points and the 10-year treasury yield was down .02 to 3.53%. Lodging stocks were higher across the board. MCG was the big winner, up 12% while INN, VCSA and PLYA each rose 5% on the day.

Despite projections of persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE’s November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8% increase in RevPAR in 2023, up from CBRE’s previous forecast of a 5.6% increase. Propelling CBRE’s increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2% rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above-long-run-average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5% year over year. By the end of 2023, CBRE forecasts all chain scales to have surpassed their respective 2019 RevPAR levels. Economy and midscale hotels recovered to 2019 levels in 2021. Luxury and upper-upscale properties have lagged due to their dependence on individual corporate and group demand. Hotels that operate in these segments will not achieve RevPAR recovery until the end of 2023. CBRE prepares Hotel Horizons forecasts for 65 of the largest U.S. markets. By year-end 2023, 53 of the 65 Horizons markets are expected to have reached, or surpassed, their 2019 RevPAR levels, leaving 12 more to recover in 2024 and beyond. The majority of markets lagging in recovery are in northern California, the upper Midwest, and along the northeast corridor from Washington, D.C. through New York. At the end of the spectrum, the leisure-centric destinations of Savannah, Miami, St. Petersburg and the Coachella Valley in California are forecast to exceed their 2019 RevPAR levels by more than 20% in 2023.

The hotel industry in 2023 is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels of demand, nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue, while inching closer to other key 2019 performance metrics, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association’s 2023 State of the Hotel Industry Report. The top findings of the report include 2023 nominal room revenue is projected to reach new heights, $197.48 billion vs. $170.35 billion in 2019. 2023 room-night demand is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels, 1.3 billion occupied room nights vs. 1.29 billion in 2019. Hotels are expected to generate $46.71 billion in state and local tax revenue in 2023, up from $41.11 billion in 2019. Average hotel occupancy is expected to reach 63.8% in 2023, just shy of 2019’s 65.9%. Staffing is expected to remain a significant challenge for U.S. hotels in 2023. Inflation for a number of hospitality-related products will continue to run 5% to upwards of 10% for the next few quarters. AHLA Platinum Partner Encore reports that 70% of planners surveyed for the company’s Fall 2022 Planner Pulse Report were either booking or actively sourcing new events, and 61% expected to have larger budgets in 2023.

Marriott Hotels announced the opening of the Marriott Panama Hotel, in Panama City, Panama. The 331-room property features two restaurants as well as a coffee shop and room service. The restaurant, bar, pool area, and lobby were renovated, including the addition of an M Club. Additional amenities include a fitness center, self-service laundry, and an outdoor pool. The Marriott Panama Hotel has 5,002 square meters of meeting and event space across 21 rooms, including a 1,700 square meter convention center, 2 grand ballrooms, and 6 meeting rooms.

Oldham Goodwin Group, LLC has plans for a new $40 million, 144-key hotel consisting of seven floors to be built in New Braunfels, Texas. The new SpringHill Suites will be Marriott’s third hotel location in New Braunfels. Construction is slated to begin in April of this year and is to be finished by the end of March 2025.

The Clay Town Center, in Middleburg, Florida, announced the addition of a five-story TownePlace Suites by Marriott to its development. The new hotel will feature 126 rooms, a pool, fitness center, indoor-outdoor dining, BBQ grills, lakefront fire pit, convenience store and guest laundry facility. A partnership between Clay Town Center Hospitality and Kellogg & Kimsey Inc., as well as the local Clay County city planners, the hotel will be located in the Clay Town Center development. Construction will begin in the second quarter of 2023, with an estimated grand opening in late summer of 2024.

Twenty Four Seven Hotels assumed operates of the 94-suite SpringHill Suites in Lancaster, California, on behalf of ownership, Ramji, LLC. Hotel amenities include an outdoor pool, hot tub, fitness center and meeting space.

Plans have been filed for a new hotel on Second Street in downtown St. Pete, Florida that would bring the first Tempo by Hilton hotel to Tampa Bay area. KT St Pete Runner LLC, an entity controlled by Kolter Group, has submitted site plan review documents for a new 13-story, 192-key hotel. The $43 million Tempo by Hilton St. Petersburg will have a ground floor lobby topped by three floors of parking containing a total of 127 spaces. The fourth floor would contain meeting space. Hotel rooms would occupy floors 5 through 13 and according to Kolter’s website, the rooftop would include a rooftop bar and pool deck.

Peachtree Hospitality Management has formed a long-term partnership with HOS Management to operate nine of its hotels with the potential for additional locations to be managed in the future. The current HOS hotel properties are primarily in the Southeast and are Marriott, Hilton and IHG branded hotels. 

IHG Hotels & Resorts announced the opening of its newest Holiday Inn Express hotel in Guadalajara, Mexico. The 120-room hotel features a heated indoor pool and a fitness center Holiday Inn Express Guadalajara Vallarta Poniente is owned by Aqua Operadora Hotelera S de RL and managed by Beyond Hospitality Business

Mint House announced the impending Spring 2023 opening of Mint House at Metro St. Petersburg in St. Petersburg, Florida. The newly constructed property, fully operated by Mint House, will offer 100 apartment-style hospitality units in the thriving EDGE district downtown. The transaction marks the third Florida location for the hospitality brand and the first on the Gulf Coast. Mint House at Metro St. Petersburg will offer a resort-style pool, wellness-focused fitness center, bike rental program and valet parking. 

Fresh off last year’s entry into Thailand, Hawaii’s Outrigger Resorts & Hotels is eyeing expansion into markets like Australia, Mexico, Southern California and Southern Florida. The company is concurrently keeping busy in its home market of Hawaii. Outrigger has earmarked $250 million to enhance the Outrigger Reef Waikiki Beach Resort, Outrigger Kona Resort & Spa, Waikiki Malia by Outrigger and Outrigger Waikiki Beachcomber Hotel. In addition to eight properties in Hawaii and three in Thailand, Outrigger has a pair of resorts in Fiji and one each in Mauritius and the Maldives.

Douglas Jemal announced the March 2023 reopening of the Richardson Hotel, located in Buffalo, New York. The 88-room boutique hotel, formerly Hotel Henry, will be managed by Evolution Hospitality. The hotel is part of Jemal’s $50 million renovation of the Richardson campus that will include converting seven buildings into at least 250 apartments, a craft brewery, restaurants and other attractions. 

The Yorktowne Hotel, which closed for renovations in 2016, has officially reopened in Downtown York, PA. The 100-year-old, 14-story building has 126 rooms, a bar, dining area, ballroom and rooftop lounge. The hotel is operated by GF Hotels & Resorts. The hotel reopened today as a Tapestry Collection by Hilton.

Starwood Capital Group, and Adventurous Journeys Capital Partners, announced the launch of Field & Stream Lodge Co., a branded hospitality platform aiming to create modern and affordable lifestyle lodging across the United States. The Field & Stream platform aims to create approximately 20 to 25 hotels initially, first targeting U.S. markets in close proximity to authentic nature experiences, including national parks, beaches, mountain and ski towns.

Sentral announced its acquisition of Align Residential, expanding the number of Sentral communities to 40, and the company’s network to 15 U.S. cities. Align Residential designs, develops and manages residential assets offering year-round, vacation-style living through curated services and amenities. Align communities feature artistically-driven events, private parks, membership clubs, theaters, restaurants and bars, gyms, wellness spas, resort-style pools and concierge services. Roman Speron, formerly CEO of Align Residential, will join Sentral as Chief Development Officer. In his new role, Speron will oversee business development, design & construction, hospitality services, and JV partnerships.

Approximately four years after receiving its proposal, the Stamford Zoning Board is only a month away from giving its approval to Old Town Square LLC for a downtown hotel project. The Old Towne Hotel project would convert the Stamford Savings Bank building into an 82-room boutique hotel with a ground-floor restaurant and rooftop patio. The developers are looking to turn the structure into a hotel by adding nine stories. 

The renovations of Hotel Viata, formerly Hotel Granduca Austin, have been completed. The hotel’s transformation features the addition of Spa Viata with eight treatment rooms; modern Italian restaurant Laurel; a renovated pool deck, lobby and more. Located in West Lake Hills, Texas, Hotel Viata has 194 guestrooms, including 38 suites, and additional amenities include ample meeting space, a poolside café, pool cabanas and an outdoor fireplace. 

Stonehill completed $1.2 billion in investments for 2022 through loan originations and CPACE financing, primarily in the hospitality and retail sectors, with $813 million and $163 million in investments completed, respectively. The remaining $269 million was distributed across the industrial, land, mixed-use, multi-family, office and senior living real estate sectors. The company expects to close on $300 million of investments in the first quarter of 2023 and is targeting $1.5 billion for 2023.

Personnel Moves

Atrium Hospitality announced that Michael Panzer joined the company as Senior Vice president, Capital Investment Strategies and will serve on the Atrium Executive Committee. In his new role, Mike will oversee the development of Atrium Hospitality’s design and project management strategies to facilitate the company’s capital investment objectives. He will strive to produce market-leading renovations and ground-up construction projects, on time and on budget. Mike will also oversee the Capital Planning Function and Facilities Management of all properties managed by the company and affiliates. Prior to joining Atrium, Mike was Vice President, Design and Construction at G6 Hospitality.

HIGHSIDE Companies hired several leadership positions amid successful expansion. Brent Gray has been hired as the Vice President – Controller and will oversee accounting best practices, workflows and processes in order to help the company to rapidly scale. Gray’s past experience includes Joint Venture Controller for Atlas Real Estate and Controller and CFO at Northstar Commercial Partners. Patrick Tyson joins HIGHSIDE as Vice President – Investments where he will oversee day-to-day real estate deal execution and ownership of each project’s P&, as well as asset management. Prior to joining HIGHSIDE, Tyson was Senior Associate for Ascentris. Matt Shannon has also joined the team as Vice President – Development and will be responsible for the management of ground-up new development including project feasibility, due diligence, entitlements, budgeting, scheduling, design and construction team coordination. Prior to joining HIGHSIDE, Shannon was a Construction and Development Executive at Westfield Company. 

HVS announced Larson Moye joined the Brokerage & Advisory division of HVS. Larson Moye is joining as a Senior Associate for HVS Americas Brokerage & Advisory division and specializes in the acquisition and disposition of hotels across Colorado. 

The American Hotel & Lodging Association announced its 2023 Officers, Board of Directors and Executive Committee, which include top leaders representing all segments of the hospitality industry. RLJ Lodging Trust President & CEO Leslie D. Hale was named chair of the board; Hilton Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development Kevin Jacobs was named vice chair; Aimbridge Hospitality President & CEO Michael J. Deitemeyer joins as secretary/treasurer; and RLJ Lodging Trust Chief Operating Officer Tom Bardenett will remain chair of the AHLA Foundation Board of Trustees. 

Alan Woinski and Kim Woinski

January 31st, 2023

Companies: Atrium Hospitality, CBRE Hotels, Field & Stream Lodge Co., Hilton Hotels & Resorts, Holiday Inn, Holiday Inn Express, HVS, IHG Hotels & Resorts, Marriott Hotels, Marriott International, Outrigger Hospitality Group, Peachtree Hospitality Development, Sentral, SpringHill Suites, Stonehill, Tempo by Hilton, TownePlace Suites, Twenty Four Seven Hotels

Locations: Australia, California, Florida, New York, New York City, Panama City, Pennsylvania, Savannah, Tampa, Texas

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