Nomura Predicts Chinese Tourism Level for 2024
Skift Take
Nomura reports that China's outbound tourism faces significant recovery challenges through 2024-2025, due to eased supply constraints but hampered by economic issues and reduced consumer demand, with a forecasted recovery to 73% of 2019's travel levels by year-end.
Investment bank Nomura said sizeable headwinds remain for the recovery of outbound overseas tourism from China in 2024 and possibly 2025. Supply side constraints had eased in terms of things such as available flights and their cost, and the availability of exit visas for Chinese. The weakness of China’s currency related to other major currencies is an issue as is the condition of the domestic economy, stagnated income growth, and high youth unemployment. This means the demand side drag on Chinese consumers’ appetite for outbound travel was now starting to kick in. Nomura said they expect Chinese passengers carried by cross-border flights to recover to 73% of 2019 levels by the end of this year. The current level is 57.9%. Spending by outbound Chinese tourists is expected to fully recover to 2019 levels this year. Chinese tourists made 155 million overseas visits in 2019, spending US$255 billion.
Central Hotels & Resorts said its
