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Barclays and STR Predict Modest RevPAR Growth for 2025


Skift Take

Barclays and STR forecast modest RevPAR growth of around 2% through 2025, with some softening due to GDP and mixed short-term performance.

The DJIA fell 16 points but Nasdaq was up 36, the S&P 500 was up a point and the 10-year treasury yield was up .02 to 3.64%. Lodging stocks were mostly higher with lodging preferred stocks trading or flirting with new 52-week highs. AHT was up 10%, VCSA was up 9%, but SOND plunged -17% today.

Barclays co-hosted a global call with Jan Freitag of CoStar/STR. Their general outlook is more of the same, with modest growth in and around +2% expected, but with a somewhat negative bias linked mostly to GDPSTR’s current 2025 expectations are for RevPAR growth to accelerate to 2.6%. At the same time, 2024 is tracking 30-40 basis points below the 2% expectation, and Barclays said Freitag’s tone was biased to a softer 2025 as well. July was softer than expected, but August should be higher given five weekends, and Q3 RevPAR should be helped by the Jewish holidays shifting into October.

New Castle Hotels & Resorts announced the reopening of the 55-room, historic LaSalle Hotel in Bryan, Texas, following a top-to-bottom, multi-million dollar re-imagination. The LaSalle offers a restaurant, a covered outdoor event space, and a subterranean speakeasy. The hotel joins the Marriott Tribute Portfolio.

The Courtyard by Marriott Los Angeles Pasadena/Old Town has completed an extensive $12.8 million renovation to the more than 300-room property located in the heart of Old Town Pasadena, California. The refurbishment features an updated bar, gym, and 314 guestrooms and suites. Additional onsite amenities include a convenience store and an outdoor pool area with fire pits and a hot tub. The property offers nearly 6,000 square feet of event and meeting space.

A joint venture between Certares and TMGOC Ventures has acquired The Ray Hotel, an acclaimed 141-room hotel in Delray Beach, FLThe Ray features multiple dining outlets, including a rooftop restaurant and bar, a rooftop pool deck, a fitness center, and a modern event space.

Gencom announced the hotel acquisition of the 42-story Thompson Central Park in New York City. The 587-key hotel features 4,500 square feet of modern meeting space, an impressive lineup of food and beverage concepts, and a 6,500 square-foot Exhale spa and fitness center expected to open later this year. The real estate transaction signifies Gencom’s first foray into New York City and also marks the first addition of a Thompson Hotels-branded hotel to Gencom’s growing hospitality portfolio. The acquisition financing for this transaction was provided by affiliates of Ramsfield Hospitality FinanceAffinius Capital, and AB CarValEastdil Secured represented the seller in the property’s sale and also represented Gencomin arranging the acquisition financing.

Sonesta International Hotels Corporation announced the opening of Sonesta Hotel Houston IAH Airport. The 335-room property features an onsite restaurant, meeting and event space, and an outdoor pool.

Super 8 by Wyndham unveiled the next generation of the INNOV8TE program. INNOV8TE 2.0 is a cost-effective upgrade that elevates the hotel experience, starting at just $1,850 per key. Making its debut amid the brand’s 50th anniversary, INNOV8TE 2.0 is designed with today’s travelers in mind, featuring refreshed color schemes, sleek furniture upgrades, crisp bedding, and durable flooring options. Upgraded features include sleek and efficient case goods, vibrant accents, modern window treatments, stylish flooring options, sleek seating, and signature black-and-white headboard art.

Developers are eyeing parcels at two commercial developments in Northeast Venice, Florida, for two extended-stay hotels, one in Mirasol Town Center and the other at Plaza Venezia. The proposed hotel in Mirasol, a four-story, 124-room Echo Suites Hotel by Wyndham, proposed by Laurel Road Development LLC and ES Venice LLC, is further in the development review process. The proposal to build a 122-room Hyatt Studios Venice hotel has only been the subject of a neighborhood workshop.

The former Wingate by Wyndham hotel on Stone Creek Boulevard in Tupelo, Mississippi has completed its conversion to a Spark by Hilton hotel. Owner Vee Patel purchased the 80-room hotel last October and began the conversion in March. To convert the hotel over, Patel had the exterior and interior repainted, new flooring and lighting installed, replaced all the furniture, and remodeled the bathrooms. A new guest laundry is being built downstairs, moving from the third floor.

Hotel Equities and Urban Investment Partners announced the opening of The Quincy Ascend Hotel Collection, located in the heart of Washington, D.C. The hotel is owned by 1823 Owner, LLC, a UIP affiliate, and operated by Hotel EquitiesThe Quincy Ascend Hotel Collection offers 99 guestrooms and a grab-and-go station in the lobby.

Extended Stay America announced the opening of the Extended Stay America Premier Suites - Harrisonburg, located in Rockingham, Virginia. The property was developed and will be managed by the owner, KARA Hospitality. The four-story, 92-room newly constructed hotel features a fitness room, onsite guest laundry, dedicated pet area, grill and picnic area, and the brand’s signature spacious lobby with additional vending options.

Pacific Hospitality Group, in partnership with Berger Holdings and JWG Investments, announced the groundbreaking of its newest independent lifestyle hotel under the Meritage Collection. Located in downtown Phoenix, the new four-star, four-diamond property is slated to open in Fall 2026. The 236-room hotel will offer 23,000 square feet of premium meeting and event space, a full-service restaurant and bar, a rooftop bar and pool deck on the 17th floor, a luxury spa, a fitness center, and an upscale café. First International Bank and Trust is providing the construction financing for the project.

Origin Hotel Kansas City will mark the first-ever hotel on the Berkley Riverfront when it opens in early October. The Wyndham-affiliated hotel will comprise 118 guestrooms, an all-day dining restaurant, 4,800 square feet of meeting and event space across five venues, a fitness center, and complimentary bike rentals.

A brand new luxury hotel is expected to come to downtown Cincinnati. The $174 million dollar project would redevelop the former Fourth & Walnut Centre and convert it into a 280-room hotel. Cincinnati City Council approved a 15-year tax abatement for the developer, Supreme Bright Cincinnati, LLC. It will give the developer a 52% discount on its property tax bill.

Centennial Yards Company has topped out The Mitchell, the first residential tower of Centennial Yards, a $5 billion mixed-use development in downtown AtlantaCentennial Yards also expects to top out a 19-story, 292-key boutique hotel later this year. In all, the 50-acre, mixed-use Centennial Yards project will create several new city blocks, public open space, and up to 12 million square feet of new retail, hotel, and residential buildings, and sports and entertainment venues.

On Friday, the three-person panel in California’s First Appellate District Court of Appeal ruled unanimously against Jay Singh’s attempted appeal of a 2022 San Francisco trial court decision that found fault with Singh after he terminated a 20-year hotel management agreement with Virgin Hotels in April 2020. The value of the management agreement over its lifetime was estimated at roughly $20 million, but Virgin was ultimately awarded $9.7 million in the original trial case.

Hunter Hotel Advisors announced the successful sale of the Suburban Studios Fort Myers Cape Coral located in Fort Myers, FloridaS4 Global Investments acquired the 101-key property. Hunter facilitated the transaction on behalf of the seller.

Personnel News

Plamondon Hospitality Partners welcomes Peter “Tripp” Plamondon III as Regional Director of Operations to support the company’s recent growth. Tripp worked at a variety of boutique hospitality firms and has also held managerial roles at both Marriott and Hilton, both of which are important brands in Plamondon’s portfolio.

Noble Investment Group announced the addition of Aine Cronin as Vice President of Investor Relations. In her new role, Cronin will help to enhance and implement best-in-class practices to engage with Noble’s growing investor base and support the firm’s expanding investment platform. Cronin joined Noble from Rockbridge, where she held responsibility for raising capital and investor relations.

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