Barclays and STR Predict Modest RevPAR Growth for 2025
Skift Take
Barclays and STR forecast modest RevPAR growth of around 2% through 2025, with some softening due to GDP and mixed short-term performance.
The DJIA fell 16 points but Nasdaq was up 36, the S&P 500 was up a point and the 10-year treasury yield was up .02 to 3.64%. Lodging stocks were mostly higher with lodging preferred stocks trading or flirting with new 52-week highs. AHT was up 10%, VCSA was up 9%, but SOND plunged -17% today.
Barclays co-hosted a global call with Jan Freitag of CoStar/STR. Their general outlook is more of the same, with modest growth in and around +2% expected, but with a somewhat negative bias linked mostly to GDP. STR’s current 2025 expectations are for RevPAR growth to accelerate to 2.6%. At the same time, 2024 is tracking 30-40 basis points below the 2% expectation, and Barclays said Freitag’s tone was biased to a softer 2025 as well. July was softer than expected, but August should be higher given five weekends, and Q3 RevPAR should be helped by the Jewish holidays shifting into October.
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