Analysts See Upside for Lodging Amid Market Volatility

The DJIA fell 86 points Friday while Nasdaq was up 24, the S&P 500 was flat, and the 10-year treasury yield was up .01 to 4.40%. Lodging stocks were modestly lower. SVC traded down to a new low while SOND and VCSA both went down by 7%, and ABNB fell by 5% on the day.

Barclays said they expect broad-based RevPAR and development accretion in 2025 but lodging stocks already reflect this rosy view. They described the mood in lodging as exuberant saying coming out of their conference, it was difficult to find a negative vibe in the group. 4Q RevPAR growth is tracking 2 points of upside, and Barclays expects 2.5% RevPAR growth in 2025. They also think there is more upside than downside to the forecast. It is all relative as lodging C-Corps have outperformed the S&P 500. They favor WH for its under-appreciated 100% franchise mix, tailwinds from infrastructure-spend-related demand, accelerating NUG, and still sector-low valuation. Timeshare remains Barclays' least-favorite sector but they are no longer net-negative on a standalone basis as all three operators sounded net positive post-election at Barclays' recent conference. They upgraded Marriott Vacations to Overweight but downgraded Hilton Grand Vacations to Equal Weight. They remain Underweight on Travel + Leisure.

JP Morgan sees global same-store RevPAR in the low single-digit range, and most C-Corps have management and franchised net room growth in 2025, which is not too dissimilar from 2024 levels. Despite same store RevPAR deceleration most of 2024, the stock have performed strongly on the idea the majority of fee/earnings growth is driven by the compounding of appealing multi-year net rooms growth. Even with EBITDA results being better than expected, JPM believes valuation multiples for the C-Corps are high, but they see the potential for the US lower-end chain scale segments to improve the most. Their favorite is Wyndham, upping their price target to $113 from $99. They downgraded Ryman Hospitality to Underweight from Neutral while maintaining their price target of $100.

Truist, after meeting with RHP management at their Gaming, Lodging, Leisure and Restaurants conference, argued that RHP should be valued on 2026 earnings to fully reflect their post-renovation earning power. They have a Buy rating and $136 price target on RHP.

The JW Marriott Las Vegas Resort & Spa and Rampart Casino is celebrating its 25th anniversary with a stunning transformation. The $75 million multi-year resort renovation includes all 548 guestrooms and suites; a refreshed fitness center; new Hydra Lounge and renovated treatment rooms in the spa; and the casino and the resort's restaurant collection have also undergone a major transformation. Additional renovation plans will continue through 2025 and will be announced next year.

PTM Partners, DoveHill, and Wurzak Hotel Group announced the opening of Sparrow at Moxy St. Petersburg on December 20, 2024, the first rooftop restaurant and lounge in St. Pete, Florida's EDGE District. The hotel features 163 guestrooms and suites, Bar Moxy, a coffee bar, a podcast studio, and 1,000 square feet of flexible meeting space.

The New York Post reported that the Trump Organization is exploring scenarios in which it can either buy back the lease on its former Washington, D.C., hotel, now the Waldorf-Astoria, or negotiate a licensing deal to switch it back to the Trump International Hotel. The Waldorf property, housed in the US Capitol's Old Post Office, is not performing well, according to reports.

Jackson Properties has proposed a four-story, 110-guestroom Home2 Suites hotel on land it owns in Elk Grove, California. According to hotelprojectleads.com, the hotel would have a business center, fitness center, outdoor pool and indoor/outdoor lounge.

Four Seasons and Paulson Puerto Rico announced plans for the hospitality and branded residential company to assume management of a resort and residences in Bahia Beach, Rio Grande, marking the entry of Four Seasons to Puerto Rico. Opening in late 2025, Four Seasons Resort and Private Residences Puerto Ricowill offer 139 re-imagined rooms and suites and 85 Private Residences, two miles of white sand beaches, multiple pools, tennis court, an 18-hole golf course, spa and fitness facilities, culinary outlets, and meetings and event spaces. Additional renovations will include a re-imagined lobby, reconfigured pools along with new cabanas, and a steam room, sauna and new experiences will be added to the spa facilities.

IHG Hotels & Resorts announced the opening of Hotel Indigo Irving - Las Colinas, the company's 13th new property in Texas in 2024. Developed and owned by Shree M Capital, the 150-room hotel offers a full-service restaurant and bar, an outdoor pool and pool garden with a bar, a fitness center and 5,400 square feet of meeting and event space.

Sonesta White Plains Downtown unveiled the completion of its property-wide renovation. The hotel's re-imagination included its 403 guestrooms and suites, nearly 20,000 square feet of flexible meeting and event space, social spaces, a brand-new Sonesta Work Suites as well as a new restaurant and lobby bar.

Leyad announced the acquisition of the 226-room Ink48 Hotel located in Hell's Kitchen, marking the company's debut in New York City. In partnership with Capstone Equities, Leyad has completed the deal through a 50/50 joint venture.

The 220-room Line DC Hotel, located in the Adams Morgan neighborhood of Washington, DC, has yet to fully recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Acore Capital has retained JLL to market the property for public auction on January 23. According to bizjournals.com, Sydell Group, Foxhall Partners, Friedman Capital, and Square mile Capital, which later became Affinius Capital, overcame a slew of challenges in tackling the project, a redevelopment of the former First Church of Christ Scientist.

The Planning and Zoning Commission of Norwalk, Connecticut, is considering a proposal to build a 96-room hotel and 100 units of housing at an existing narrow five-story office building on Belden Avenue. If approved, the hotel would rise six floors on the east side of the office building, and the housing units would be built on the west side. The property comes with 290 parking spaces that would not be changed. The project is being proposed by Milligan Realty.

The City Council approved plans for a new boutique hotel in Naples, Florida. The council voted in favor of a mixed-use project that will include an 18-room, all-suite hotel and a nearly 6,500 square foot restaurant. The Stojkoski family is the owner and developer of the property. The luxury hotel, operating under the name Aquarius, will have nine suites on the second floor, and an equal number on the third floor. It will include a pool and outdoor bar along with a lobby and front desk for check-in and onsite security at night.

The Outer Banks of North Carolina is ushering in a new era of travel experiences, marked by the rise of boutique hotels that enhance the region's accommodation offerings, according to travelandtourworld.com. Over the past year, the coastal destination has witnessed a significant transformation, with new construction, rebranded properties and renovated hotels redefining its lodging landscape. The waterfront town of Manteo has emerged as a hub for boutique lodging with three properties reshaping its accommodations, including The Pearl Hotel; Hotel Manteo; and The Manteo House. In Nags Head, the Owen's Hotel has been transformed into Mia's Boutique Hotel. In Cape Hatteras, the Pamlico Station Edgecampopened in 2024. Looking ahead to the summer of 2025, Kill Devil Hills will welcome a rebranded flag hotel.

Lincoln Property Company will team up with the Cleveland Browns to develop a mixed-use entertainment district in Brook Park, Ohio, anchored by a new enclosed stadium for the team. The mixed-use entertainment district surrounding the stadium will be developed across multiple phases and will ultimately include 300,000 square feet of retail, two upscale hotels, 1,100 apartments and 500,000 square feet of office space. Phase one, which is planned to deliver along with the stadium in 2029, will include 450 hotels rooms; 575 apartments; 96,000 square feet of traditional retail suited for unique food and beverage and shopping destinations; and 137,000 square feet of experiential retail, including a team store and other experienced-based retail concepts that will drive year-round activation and community involvement.

The newly renovated Beach Club at The Boca Raton welcomes back guests following a $120 million top-to-bottom makeover that transformed the resort's 210 guestrooms and suites, dining and wellness offerings, three pools and poolside amenities. As part of The Boca Raton, which boasts 200 waterfront acres and five resorts, Beach Club guests also have access to golf, tennis, and pickleball amenities, Spa Palmera, and more than a dozen more restaurants and bars. The Beach Club's renovation is part of The Boca Raton's $375 million transformation.

Syracuse University announced it is looking to build a new, full-service hotel on University Avenue. As of now, the University is looking to build a roughly 200-room hotel that will include a restaurant and event space. The University stated that it is currently meeting with high-profile hotel brands and is collaborating with Onondaga County leadership on the project.

Jeff Hoops, the developer of the Grand Patrician Resort in Milton, West Virginia, announced that the multimillion-dollar luxury resort is nearly 80% finished. The resort is already home to a walking track and golf course. Additional features include a residential area, a wedding chapel and a ballroom. Hoops said the resort is expected to open sometime in late spring of 2025.

HVS Brokerage & Advisory announced the sale of the 89-key TownePlace Suites by Marriott Houston Tomball, located in Tomball, Texas. The newly constructed property was purchased by Justo LP from Mitro GP Partners LLC.

IPA Capital Markets has secured $16.68 million in acquisition financing from Hillcrest Finance for the Residence Inn Santa Fe, a 120-key hotel in Santa Fe, New Mexico. The hotel consists of 15 two-story guestroom buildings, a fitness center, outdoor pool, an onsite convenience store and guest laundry services.

RIU Hotels & Resorts completed the refurbishment of the Riu Negril located on the beachfront at Bloody Bay in Negril, Jamaica. The hotel now has 600 fully refurbished rooms and new services, including RIU Party events. The hotel has a total of eight restaurants, three of which are new; five refitted pools; and three new pickleball courts.

Personnel Move

AWH Partners announced the promotion of Devashish (Dev) Sharma to director of analytics. Previously in asset management, Sharma will leverage the firm's data assets to create insights that sharpen acquisition strategies, improve asset performance, and strengthen overall decision-making and corporate governance, ultimately driving superior outcomes for stakeholders.

Europe Highlight

The Azur Selection intends to acquire Latin Beach, a front-beach site on the Athenian Riviera. Operating since 2022, Latin Beach has completed a full renovation in early 2024. Located in the southern suburbs of Athens, Latin Beach features a luxurious seaside restaurant, an expansive events area, and an exclusive beach facility boasting 400 sunbeds along the coastline.