Analysts See Upside for Lodging Amid Market Volatility
Skift Take
Lodging stocks dipped despite optimistic analyst forecasts for RevPAR growth and franchise expansion in 2025, highlighting a mixed market sentiment.
The DJIA fell 86 points Friday while Nasdaq was up 24, the S&P 500 was flat, and the 10-year treasury yield was up .01 to 4.40%. Lodging stocks were modestly lower. SVC traded down to a new low while SOND and VCSA both went down by 7%, and ABNB fell by 5% on the day.
Barclays said they expect broad-based RevPAR and development accretion in 2025 but lodging stocks already reflect this rosy view. They described the mood in lodging as exuberant saying coming out of their conference, it was difficult to find a negative vibe in the group. 4Q RevPAR growth is tracking 2 points of upside, and Barclays expects 2.5% RevPAR growth in 2025. They also think there is more upside than downside to the forecast. It is all relative as lodging C-Corps have outperformed the S&P 500. They favor WH for its under-appreciated 100% franchise mix, tailwinds from infrastructure-spend-related demand, accele
