Analysts Trim U.S. Hotel Forecasts and Ratings

The DJIA rose 32 points on Friday while Nasdaq was up 92, the S&P 500 was up 5 points, and the 10-year treasury yield was up .02 to 4.25%. The hotel stocks are under pressure from concerns over the economy and the impact of tariffs and interest rates. Analysts chiming in with negative commentary is adding to that pressure. The list of new lows on Friday included RLJ, CLDT, INN, XHR, HST, RHP, PEB, APLE, H and VAC. We have a feeling that until 1Q25 results are announced and the companies either confirm or deny the fears that are pummeling the stocks, it will be an uphill battle for lodging investors. Once the news is confirmed, we may get a relief rally, but it could be a very long month before earnings season begins.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Host Hotels from Underweight to Equal Weight.

Truist Securities downgraded their rating on RLJ Hotel Trust to Hold from Buy, warning of heightened risks in DC. As part of their regular study of forward-looking booking and pricing trends in the US, they see too much downside risk in RLJ's important market of Washington, DC, to maintain their Buy rating.

Overall, Truist lowered its full-year 2025 RevPAR projections for the hotel sector to Flat to +2% from the previous range of 1% to 3% growth for U.S. mid and upper-end hotels. For 3Q25, they introduced a forecast of down -2% to up +1% for US mid and upper-end hotels, well below consensus of +2.5%.

Following 4Q25 results and their forward-looking study, Truist slashed price targets on its lodging stock coverage pretty much across the board.

STR reported US hotel data for the week ended March 15th. In what seemed like a clean week, US hotel RevPAR was down -4.2% year over year, with occupancy down -3.5%.

Barclays noted that this shows the first crack in US RevPAR data, with corporate travel seeming to be hit the hardest. They said corporate transient is typically the first segment to pull back in the early stages of a recession and that is what they saw causing the RevPAR slowdown in the first half of March. They noted the companies most exposed to weaker corporate transient are MAR, HLT, CHH and WH.

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed performance results from the previous month, according to February 2025 data from CoStar. February 2025 (percentage change from February 2024): Occupancy: 59.1% (+0.5%) ADR: $159.39 (+1.4%) RevPAR: $94.24 (+1.9%). Among the Top 25 Markets, Tampa experienced the highest occupancy level (+9.2% to 86.4%). Markets with the lowest occupancy for the month included Minneapolis (49.5%) and St. Louis (50.7%).

For more context, read the Skift article Recession Watch for Travel? These Hotel Insiders Don’t See it (Yet). On Tuesday, March 25, Skift's editors will hold a LinkedIn Live about the potential "global grounding of the economy" and the impact on travel.

A SpringHill Suites by Marriott Hotel will be developed in Mesa, Arizona. The five-story, 125-room hotel will be adjacent to a retail and restaurant space in the Gateway East master-planned development near Mesa Gateway Airport. The hotel is projected to open in fall 2024.

Gencom announced the acquisition of The Ritz-Carlton, New Orleans, and the Courtyard by Marriott New Orleans French Quarter/Iberville. This adds 758 keys from the two connected hotel properties. The Ritz-Carlton has 528 hotel rooms and suites, over 48,000 square feet of premier event space, a fitness center, an indoor swimming pool, and a 25,000-square-foot spa, considered the largest in New Orleans. The adjacent Courtyard by Marriott has 230 keys.

The village board of Romeoville, Illinois, approved a development agreement for a four-story Tru by Hilton hotel. The new hotel will have about 100 rooms and two outlets for restaurants.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation announced that Maison Metier and The Barnett, two New Orleans properties located adjacent to one another, have officially joined the World of Hyatt loyalty program and respective Hyatt brands. Maison Metier is entering The Unbound Collection following a rebrand and refresh. Simultaneously, The Barnett, which has undergone extensive renovations has joined JdV by Hyatt. HRI Hospitality manages both properties. Owned by Domain Companies, Maison Metier offers 67 guestrooms and suites and a salon-style bar. The Barnett, owned through a joint venture of Domain Companies and HRI Hospitality, boasts 234 guestrooms and multiple culinary venues.

Dreamscape Hospitality assumed management of Hyatt Regency Houston West. Located within West Houston's Energy Corridor, the hotel features 400 guestrooms and suites, 25,000 square feet of flexible event space, and four unique dining venues.

The Perry Hotel, a 160-room boutique hotel in North Naples, Florida, held a ribbon-cutting ceremony and grand opening party on March 19th.

LBA Hospitality has officially assumed management of Sai Hospitality's full portfolio of hotels. The five hotels in the portfolio include: Holiday Inn & Suites Savannah Airport/Pooler; Fairfield Inn & Suites Hinesville, GA/Fort Stewart; Best Western Premier Savannah Airport/Pooler; Hampton Inn Naples 1-75; and Hampton Inn Waynesboro, Georgia.

Edgewater Group announced the addition of Alluxsuites at 1876 to its growing portfolio, marking the debut of its fifth Ascend Hotel Collection property. Located in Tallahassee, Florida, the newly renovated hotel offers a meeting room and will introduce a new bar and grille, set to open in late spring/early summer 2025.

Fairmont Pacific Rim, located in Vancouver, BC, officially revealed its Fairmont Gold experience, following an extensive renovation led by Westbank, the hotel's co-owner and developer with partner Peterson. Spanning the 20th to 22nd floors of the hotel, Fairmont Gold at Fairmont Pacific Rim offers an unparalleled guest experience with bespoke amenities, including a dedicated 24/7 concierge team, exclusive access to a selection of handpicked offerings and the exclusive Fairmont Gold Lounge.

Veteran real estate developer Allison Davis is looking to build a 26-story, 250-room hotel near the Obama Presidential Center in Chicago, Illinois. The proposal includes 118 parking spaces, as well as retail and office space, according to the zoning application.

The owners of Birkdale Village in Huntersville, North Carolina, have been granted rezoning approval for the next phase of their development. The $200 million proposal includes a new 7-story, 125-guestroom hotel, 150 multifamily units, 26,715 square feet of retail space, and a seven-story office building. Construction is planned to begin in early 2027.

HVS Brokerage & Advisory announced the sale of the 61-key Baymont by Wyndham Houston/Westchase, located in Houston, Texas. The property was purchased by Nagin Investments LLC from American Liberty Hospitality.

Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation arranged $10.6 million for the refinancing of Four Points by Sheraton San Diego. MMCC's San Diego office secured financing with a national bank on behalf of a private owner. The loan was a cashout refinance with a 5-year term, 20-year amortization, and 70% loan-to-value. The 225-key hotel features a restaurant and lounge, fitness center, outdoor heated pool and hot tub, a business center, and 10 meeting rooms.

Ashford Hospitality Trust announced that Remington, its largest property manager, has fully implemented property-level headcount reductions, reduced travel expenses, changed the PTO policy for field associates and reduced contracted services and centralized expenses allocated to the Company's properties as part of its efforts to enhance hotel EBITDA. AHT said this shows Remington's commitment to helping AHT execute on its "GRO AHT" transformative initiative. AHT said this will wind up being an $11 million cost-saving plan for Remington.

Personnel News

JLL's Hotels Hospitality Group announced Kristina D'Amico has joined the firm as Vice President within its Hotels' Asset Management team. In her new role, D'Amico will be responsible for client service delivery and portfolio growth in the Southern United States, Latin America and the Caribbean. D'Amico brings 14 years of experience from HVS Consulting & Valuation to her new position at JLL.