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U.S. Hotel Sector Continues Its Recovery

The  DJIA gained about 1%, or about 270 points, while  Nasdaq  rallied 2.4%. The  S&P 500  added about 1.7%, erasing an earlier decline of 0.7%, and the  10-year treasury yield  climbed to 3.58%. It's been a wild week. Baird upgraded their rating on Choice Hotels International to Outperform. They believe their earnings outlook is improving for 2023-2024. IHG Hotels & Resorts continues to demonstrate the strength of its Holiday Inn brand family in Southern Europe

A Sad Sack of Lodging SPACs Struggling as Public Companies

In an amazing recovery from over 700 points down, the DJIA ended the day down only 280 points while Nasdaq rallied to end up 6. Vacasa’s stock price plunged well into penny stock category, joining Sonder, before recovering somewhat, ending the day down -25%. Braemar Hotels & Resorts and Ashford Hospitality Trust both issued press releases, clarifying that their cash holdings are safe . STR reported US lodging data for the week ended 3/11. US hotel RevPAR was up 11.1% year over year.

Shrugging Off the Fed, Hotels Put Heads in Beds

voco hotels celebrated 100 properties signed and opened globally. The emerging IHG Hotels & Resorts’ brand reached the milestone in just five years after its first-ever hotel opening. Island Hospitality Management announced the company added 14 hotels to its third-party management portfolio during 2022. Moxy Williamsburg debuted today as the brand’s first hotel in Brooklyn, New York.

Accor’s Optimistic Outlook

Marriott Vacations missed expectations with their 4Q report, primarily due to their exchange and rental businesses as their core VOI business outperformed. Chatham Lodging Trust reported an in-line 4Q for EBITDA. They did not give 2023 guidance. Accor reported good results and forecast higher RevPAR for 2023 , very optimistic due to the return of the Chinese traveler.

Great Wolf Opening Largest Property to Date in Maryland

Lodging stocks were higher. ABNB led the group with a 7% rise while MCG was up 5%. Raymond James upped their price target on Hilton to $165 from $150. They maintained their Outperform rating. Ian Schrager and Ed Sheetz have stepped in to possibly partner with Chetrit Group , to rescue its landmark Bossert Hotel , located in Brooklyn Heights, New York.

Hilton Had a Blow-Out Quarter

The DJIA fell 0.73% while Nasdaq was down 1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.88% and the 10-year treasury yield was roughly flat at 3.671%. Hilton checked nearly all the boxes with their earnings report, kicking off lodging earnings season with a bang . InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is seeking to fend off claims from franchisees five months after a cyber attack that hotel owners say cost them money and disrupted business.

Spark by Hilton Is a Conversion Favorite

BofA Securities initiated coverage on Marriott Vacations with a Neutral rating and a $180 price target. The Wall Street Journal published an article on how hotel companies are stepping up efforts to lure competitors’ hotels to their own brands. The article referenced Hilton’s new Spark by Hilton brand. We had heard those concerns about upcoming maturities from Service Properties Trust when we were positive about their resumption of the previous dividend, giving them an 11% yield at the time.

Hotel Asset Sales Pick Up

Jefferies said the looming recession and stabilizing credit market could be positive for the prospects of timeshare, but with a harder landing not off the table, they see stocks trading at rich valuations. Truist said with earnings season about to kick into gear for the lodging sector, they continue to see macro over micro. Park Hotels and Resorts Inc. closed on the sale of the 508-room Hilton Miami Airport , located in Miami, Florida , for $118.25 million.

Two Forecasts Point to Strong 2023 Hotel Performance

Despite projections of persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE’s November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8% increase in RevPAR in 2023, up from CBRE’s previous forecast of a 5.6% increase. The hotel industry in 2023 is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels of demand , nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue, while inching closer to other key 2019 performance metrics. Starwood Capital Group , and Adventurous Journeys Capital Partners , announced the launch of Field & Stream Lodge Co., a branded hospitality platform aiming to create modern and affordable lifestyle lodging across the United States.

ALIS Hotel Conference Preview

Jefferies gave their ALIS Conference preview saying they anticipate the lodging management teams will provide incremental color on the trajectory of lodging in a variety of economic scenarios. Marriott International, Inc. announced the company’s deal signings accelerated again in 2022 . The company signed a total of 726 management and franchise agreements. Wyndham Hotels & Resorts is setting its sights on a continued expansion in 2023 , following a banner year that saw the company cap multiple milestones and accomplishments across the globe.