Global Tourism Now at 98% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

The DJIA fell 248 points, Nasdaq was down 35, the S&P 500 fell 11 points and the 10-year treasury yield was unchanged at 4.18%. Lodging stocks were modestly lower but we did see new highs from WH, H, MAR, HLT, and IHG today. SOND was the biggest mover, down -8%, while AHT fell -6% and SHCO was down -5%.

Wells Fargo initiated coverage on Wyndham Hotels and Choice Hotels International. They like Wyndham but believe the stock has really outperformed so they are waiting for a better entry point. They initiated with an Equal Weight rating and $103 price target. For Choice, they initiated at Underweight with a $133 price target, seeing their 14x EV/EBITDA valuation as full versus 3% EBITDA growth and said its RevPAR has underperformed its index/weighting and increased key money has yet to pay dividends.

Park Hotels gave an operating update with their November RevPAR decline of -3.5% including the strike impact, suggesting 4Q RevPAR will be at the high end of the prior outlook, driven by strong group and leisure results at Bonnet Creek and Cana Marina and Chicago. PK sold the DoubleTree Spokane City Center at a 13.0X TTM EBITDA. Capital returns have reached nearly $375 million this year.

PwC's U.S. Hospitality Directions was published last week. PwC forecasts that the U.S. lodging sector will experience muted growth in 2025, driven by moderate ADR increases and stable occupancy levels. PwC predicts that occupancy will stand at 62.9% in 2025, while ADR will increase 1.3% year over year. This will result in stable year-over-year RevPAR growth of 1.5% in 2025. The continued strength of upper-tier chain scales will drive the expected ADR growth in 2025. Hospitality firm STR similarly forecasted earlier this month that higher-end chain scales will continue to drive industry performance for the remainder of 2024 and potentially beyond.

Blackstone faces foreclosure on the $275 million portfolio of its four Club Quarters Hotels, the Real Deal reported. The loan for these hotels entered special servicing in 2020, and Blackstone did not pay off the balance when it matured. Citing commentary from MorningStar Credit, the Real Deal reported that Blackstone and special servicer CW Capital Management were unable to settle on a workout agreement before the loan matured.

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. signed a definitive agreement to sell the 315-room Courtyard Boston Downtown located in Boston, Massachusetts, for $123.0 million. The sale is expected to be completed in January 2025.

TPG Hotels & Resorts has been chosen by LXMI Capital to operate the Sheraton McKinney Hotel, located in McKinney, Texas. The 187-room property features an outdoor pool, a fitness center, over 16,000 square feet of meeting space and a restaurant.

Noble Investment Group announced the completion of renovations at two of its downtown Denver, Colorado properties, the 182-suite Homewood Suites by Hilton Denver Downtown-Convention Center and the 120-room Hampton Inn & Suites Denver Downtown-Convention Center. The hotels are connected with a shared lobby and combined, have nearly 10,000 square feet of event and meeting space.

Hunter Hotel Advisors facilitated the sale of the 101-key Hampton Inn Corpus Christi located in Corpus Christi, Texas. A regional owner and operator purchased the property from American Hotel Income Properties. Hunter Hotel Advisors represented the seller.

This month, Lore Group introduces Hotel Park Ave after acquiring the former Mondrian Park Avenue hotel, marking Lore Group's seventh hotel property. Hotel Park Ave will join Lore DISCOVERY in 2025. The hotel is now open and will undergo a two-phased refurbishment, beginning in 2025, with a refresh to all guestrooms in the first quarter. In Spring 2025, Lore Group will unveil a new lobby and nine spacious suites. New dining concepts across the hotel's rooftop terrace bar and ground-level restaurant will be announced in Spring 2025. The hotel will remain open throughout.

Hyatt Regency Greenwich in Connecticut and Trinity Investments announced the completion of the hotel's $40 million renovation. The property offers 374 remodeled and redecorated guestrooms, culinary offerings, and 28,000 square feet of meeting and event spaces, including the refreshed junior ballroom and atrium.

IHG Hotels & Resorts, in collaboration with owner Rocco Development Group, recently announced the signing of a new dual-branded 114-room Holiday Inn and 70-room Atwell Suites property in Belen, Costa Rica. Upon its planned 2027 opening, the property marks both the first Atwell Suites in the region and the first such pairing of one of IHG's newer brands (Atwell Suites with one of its legacy offerings (Holiday Inn).

IHG also recently signed a conversion agreement for a soon-to-be voco hotel in Oranjestad, Aruba. Poised to open by the end of 2025 in collaboration with owner Talk of the Town Management, the 69-room property marks the first on the island for the IHG premium brand.

Brookmere announced its opening on December 18, 2024, in Saratoga Springs, New York. Managed by Hay Creek Hotels and Restaurants, the 88-room property offers a restaurant and bar, a grand ballroom spanning 3,500 square feet, Arbor Spa, outdoor wellness facilities and more.

The Inn at Mattei's Tavern, Auberge Resorts Collection, announced the debut of its brand new spa and wellness concept, Lavender Barn, an Auberge Spa. Located in Los Olivos, California, the property offers 68 guestrooms and cottages; five food and beverage venues; and an outdoor pool with a poolside bar, cabanas and firepits; and indoor-outdoor event spaces.

The Daydrift, the latest addition to Blue Suede Hospitality Group's portfolio, has opened in the Collins Park neighborhood of Miami Beach, Florida. The Daydrift features 50 guestrooms and suites, a lobby lounge, rooftop pool and deck.

Aligned Hospitality Management has added 98-key The Kennedy Hotel, SureStay Collection by Best Western, in Tucson, Arizona, to its management portfolio.

North American Properties, the owners of Birkdale Village in Huntersville, North Carolina, are planning a $180 million expansion plan that will include a 125-room hotel, 150 multifamily units, office and retail space. According to hotelprojectleads, the project is currently being reviewed by the city planning commission.

The revamped Hotel Petersburg opened today in Petersburg, Virginia. Formerly the Shirley Hotel, the seven-story establishment features 64 rooms, over 2,000 square feet of meeting space, a rooftop bar and a restaurant. Retro Hospitality is managing the hotel.

Saybrook Point Resort & Marina, in Old Saybrook, Connecticut, announced the launch of its butler service, which is now available to guests of the resort's Tall Tales and Three Stories guesthouses. Customized to address each visitor's preferences, this service can encompass an array of activities, including private check-ins, special welcome cocktails, individually curated itineraries, and all spa, dining and transportation arrangements.

Seaboard Hospitality LLC is proposing a top-to-bottom revitalization of its Beach View Hotel in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. Plans for the 38-room hotel call for all existing rooms to be updated and modernized, with a number of family-style suites created. Additionally, there would be an expansion of the employee area, and the building would be brought into compliance with modern handicap-accessibility requirements. The projected timeline for the renovation is the hotel would close for the fall and winter months, and then reopen in time for the 2026 season.

AC Hotels by Marriott announced the opening of its first hotel in Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic. The hotel has 140 rooms and multiple food and beverage venues.

Personnel Moves

GF Hotels & Resorts announced the appointment of Chris Lorino as Senior Executive Vice President, Operations. Lorino will play a critical role in guiding the company's future growth and ensuring its continued success in the competitive hospitality landscape. Most recently, Lorino served as Senior Vice President of Operations at First Hospitality.

Carter Gradwell has joined Walker & Dunlop as a Senior Director on the hospitality investment sales team. In his role, Carter will be focused on upper-upscale and luxury property sales nationwide. Prior to joining Walker & Dunlop, Gradwell gained over 12 years of capital markets experience in roles at CBRE and Allianz, in the hospitality, travel and entertainment sectors.

Beaumier announced the appointment of Billy Skelli-Cohen as Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2025. Most recently, he was Chief Executive Officer of Zien Group.

Europe Highlights

According to the latest World Tourism Barometer by UN Tourism, around 1.1 billion tourists traveled internationally in the first nine months of 2024, as the global tourism sector recovered 98% of pre-pandemic levels. International tourists arrivals grew strongly in the first nine months of 2024, driven by strong post-pandemic demand in Europe and robust performance from large source markets globally, as well as the ongoing recovery of destinations in Asia and the Pacific. Increased air connectivity and visa facilitation also supported international travel. The Middle East (+29% compared to 2019) continued record growth this nine-month period, while Europe (+1%) and Africa (+6%) also exceeded 2019 levels. The Americas recovered 97% of its pre-pandemic arrivals (-3% over 2019). Asia and the Pacific reached 85% of 2019 levels. A total of 60 out of 111 destinations surpassed 2019 arrival numbers in the first eight to nine months of 2024.

Top Performers in Earnings

Some of the strongest performers in arrivals during this period were Qatar (+141% vs. 2019), Albania (+77%), Saudi Arabia (+61%), Curacao (+48%), Tanzania (+43%), Colombia and Andorra (both +35%). A total of 35 out of 43 countries with available data on receipts exceeded pre-pandemic values in the first eight to nine months of 2024. Among the best performers in terms of earnings were Serbia (+99%), Pakistan (+64%), Romania (+61%), Japan (+58%), Portugal (51%), Nicaragua and Tanzania (both 50%). Among the world's top earners, Japan (+59%), Turkiye (+41%) and France (+27%) all recorded double-digit growth through September 2024. Spain (+35%) and Italy (+26%) also reported strong visitor receipts through August. The United Kingdom recorded 43% higher earnings, Canada 35%, and Australia 18%, all through June 2024. As for the United States, the world's top tourism earner, it reported 7% growth through September. Data on international tourism expenditure reflects the same trends, especially among large source markets such as Germany (+35% compared to 2019), the U.S. (+33%), and France (+11%). Strong expenditure growth was also reported by the UK (+46%), Australia (+34%), Canada (+28%), and Italy (+26%), all through June 2024. Available data for India shows 81% growth through June 2024 versus 2019.

Four Seasons, in partnership with Hinitsa Bay Holdings, announced plans for the redevelopment of a beachside property at Hinitsa Bay, Porto Heli, Greece into a luxury resort and private residences. Four Seasons Resort and Residences Porto Heli will transform an existing estate into a Four Seasons experience with 80 guestrooms and suites and 30 bungalows, as well as Four Seasons-branded residential villas. The resort will offer several dining experiences, a Kids For All Seasons program, a multi-sport centre, gym, meeting space and multiple pools.

Oetker Collection will debut a property in Saint-Tropez on the French Riviera in 2027, in partnership with the Pariente family. The property, whose name is yet to be announced, will feature 53 rooms and suites, an infinity pool, an expansive wellness facility, a bar and restaurant